UK electoral calculus shifts again as poll shows collapse of Labour vote in Scotland

This poll by Ipsos Mori, commissioned by STV, shows just how much the Labour party have fallen into disarray in Scotland. They are polling just 23% – that’s half what they polled in the 2010 General Election (42%). If this poll were to pan out in reality, Labour would have just 4 seats in Scotland, as opposed to 54 seats (!) for the SNP. Here’s a map to show just how dramatic this would be:

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Now, clearly some of this is just reaction to the departure of the leader of the Scottish Labour party. But the comments made by Johann Lamont as she left have evidently struck a chord. She accused the Labour party of merely treating their Scottish counterparts as a “branch office“.

This disaffection with Westminster is a broader theme that now leaves the two main parties polling around 33% each, with UKIP 16, Lib Dems 8 and Greens on 5. This makes the General Election next year much harder to call, given the rise of the fringe parties and uncertainty over how their votes might translate into seats. This in itself increases the UK political risk premium, before we’ve even discussed the potential alliances that might bring forward an EU referendum. Now added to this we have the implosion of Labour support in one of their heartlands. Could we even end up with an SNP/Conservative confidence-and-supply government?? With the SNP saying Scotland should have a veto on any EU referendum – i.e. that Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland should decide separately – that could really cause confusion… Keep an eye on that EUR/GBP vol!

 

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