Let the battle between #FOMO and #FOTU commence!

You always have to love an investor survey, and the latest Quarterly from Barclays encapsulates clearly the battle we will now face over the next few weeks: between the Fear Of Missing Out and the Fear Of The Unknown. All these tweets from Trump are starting to make people realise that the foundations on which we base our outlooks are about to suffer one heck of a shock. Not just because he’s an unknown quantity as an elected official; not just because his personal ideology is fluid; but because he is communicating in real time via Twitter. We are entering the most dangerous period of his Presidency, just as the market is at its most illiquid. He’s at his most powerful – having done nothing yet to feel any pressure, and riding on the wave of delivering a Republican clean sweep, while being free from the checks and balances of being the actual President. The period between now and his inauguration on Jan 20th could in fact be where FOTU smacks the equity dip-buyers strongly in the face. Here’s the dilemma in 3 charts:

1. No one has moved their position very much, despite the big moves in markets

img_4322

2. But with those price moves in bonds, equities still look good

img_4323

3. Even as the biggest risk ahead is clearly politics

img_4324

FOMO had its way for all of 2016. Now it’s time for FOTU to take over…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *