Positioning vs Reality

We are poised to enter one of those potentially confusing periods of Positioning vs Reality. The reality is that yes, the world is in an upswing higher, and was already before the alleged Trump Trades were put on:

Inflation is back, baby, and you better believe it – with China’s Producer Price Index roaring up to 5 year highs at 5.5%, having been at -5% just 12 months ago….And yes, the rate of change in this inflation in China is the highest it has ever been:


But then oh dear, what do we have here? Record net shorts on the US 10year:


And the shortest Yen positions in a couple of years:

Uh oh. Mind the gap in USD/JPY?

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