- Highly uncertain outcome due to realignment of electorate post financial crisis.
- Turnout will be key.
- Increased risk of Disorderly Brexit whatever the outcome
Risks for your portfolio:
- Disorderly Brexit risk to increase GBP implied volatility, particularly vs EUR.
- Complicates timing of first BOE rate hike.
- Stagflation risk premium for Gilts and UK small cap equity markets.