The UK General Election 2017

  • Highly uncertain outcome due to realignment of electorate post financial crisis.
  • Turnout will be key.
  • Increased risk of Disorderly Brexit whatever the outcome

Risks for your portfolio:

  1. Disorderly Brexit risk to increase GBP implied volatility, particularly vs EUR.
  2. Complicates timing of first BOE rate hike.
  3. Stagflation risk premium for Gilts and UK small cap equity markets.

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