The Contagion of Probability

As we know from Friday's note, the entire market is undergoing a repricing to reflect the new distribution of future outcomes. It was always there, of course, it's just that the quant models didn't take it into account until it was shown in the price. That's where February's Volmageddon became so significant as a turning point. Models take on this data and compute: if volatility has gone up, then take into account that it could . . .

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