The BlondeMoney team has spent the summer going through all 650 MPs in the UK Parliament to determine their personal view on Brexit. We ranked them on a scale of -15 for the most “Remain” to +15 for the most “Leave”. We used 24 criteria, including:
- their personal declared vote;
- their position in any Brexit campaigning organisation;
- their votes against their party;
- and their declared views on Brexit.
- We scoured the official Parliamentary records on Hansard along with their websites, articles and constituency briefings.
The results show:
- even a skilled leader with strong party discipline would have to reach across the divide for the votes required to pass a Deal through Parliament;
- the extremes at both ends of the distribution can form a strong enough minority to wreck a final Deal unless it moves in their direction;
- the centre of the distribution is still split by both ideology and Party
This is why we believe Parliament will be unable to agree on a Deal, which will ultimately lead to a change of Prime Minister and an inevitable crisis to flush out the necessary pressure to get a deal done.
With our database we can:
- identify which MP sits where;
- identify which MPs are most likely to shift position through a comparison with their constituency vote and their majority;
- model how an MP might vote when it comes to the crunch;
- model how different factions can block legislation or force amendments;
- analyse how new leaders of any party might gain a power base.
If any of this would be useful for you or your colleagues, please let us know.
Like it or loathe it, we are about to enter the key period for Brexit risks. There are only 13 days of Parliament sitting until the October EU Summit. Before that, we have the key Party Conference season to get through, which will only serve to heighten these divisions. Business can no longer pretend it is ready for No Deal: contingency plans will be activated.
BlondeMoney is ready to be your Brexit guide. Let us know how we can help.