Email us to Purchase the Figures behind Our Predictions
In our six-page report, we present why we are headed for No Deal.
Despite last night’s defeat for the Government on the Finance Bill amendment that limits setting aside funds for No Deal contingencies, Parliament still needs to vote for an alternative. But there is no majority for anything else.
- Here are MPs’ first preferences for what they want from Brexit:
- And here are the numbers once certain factions club together:
Conclusion #1: Theresa May needs Labour MP votes.
- 155 of 257 Labour-held constituencies voted to Leave.
- 90% of Labour MPs voted to Remain
- 75% of Labour Party members want a Second Referendum
- Corbyn wants an election before being tainted by the Brexit mess
Conclusion #2: Labour holds an impossible position.
In the battle of The Great Protestor Jeremy vs The Great Administrator Theresa, no one will lead. Both positions are passive.
Conclusion #3: Events will force their hands.
A crisis is needed to break the deadlock. Then 4 options could prevent No Deal:
- Pragmatists of all parties fall into line and pass May’s Deal (with EU concessions?)
- A new government emerges via a 14 day post-No Confidence period or an Election
- A government of national unity (GNU) emerges as Labour MPs defy the whip
- Article 50 is extended to allow for either a Second Referendum or a General Election
Conclusion #4: A new era of political instability is upon us.
Click here to view the full report.