The Brexit Roadmap

Email us to Purchase the Figures behind Our Predictions

In our six-page report, we present why we are headed for No Deal.

Despite last night’s defeat for the Government on the Finance Bill amendment that limits setting aside funds for No Deal contingencies, Parliament still needs to vote for an alternative. But there is no majority for anything else. 

  1. Here are MPs’ first preferences for what they want from Brexit:
  2. And here are the numbers once certain factions club together:

Conclusion #1: Theresa May needs Labour MP votes.

But:

  • 155 of 257 Labour-held constituencies voted to Leave.
  • 90% of Labour MPs voted to Remain
  • 75% of Labour Party members want a Second Referendum
  • Corbyn wants an election before being tainted by the Brexit mess

Conclusion #2: Labour holds an impossible position.

In the battle of The Great Protestor Jeremy vs The Great Administrator Theresa, no one will lead. Both positions are passive.

Conclusion #3: Events will force their hands.

A crisis is needed to break the deadlock. Then 4 options could prevent No Deal:

  1. Pragmatists of all parties fall into line and pass May’s Deal (with EU concessions?)
  2. A new government emerges via a 14 day post-No Confidence period or an Election
  3. A government of national unity (GNU) emerges as Labour MPs defy the whip
  4. Article 50 is extended to allow for either a Second Referendum or a General Election

Conclusion #4: A new era of political instability is upon us.

Click here to view the full report.

2 Comments

Lloyd Isaac Zokay

Excellent analysis!

But how can No Deal happen if only 43 MPs want it? Option number 4 of the full article points the way.

The brave thing for the PM to do is exactly what she has often said she won’t do and succumb to another referendum. (After all, this lady has a penchant for U-turns!) In order to salvage her reputation from eternal damnation, she will also need to allow Tory MPs a free vote on the referendum bill (outline below*) and promise to stand down soon after the result is known. No, doubt, this will tear the country apart yet again but, at least, we will get a “legitimate” outcome – until the next time!

Claiming this sort of moral high-ground, will flush out the Labour leadership. They will need to support the bill or at least allow a free vote too (inevitably meaning it will pass). Alternatively, they could go against the flow and risk a rebellion in their own ranks inside and outside Parliament and generally jeopardise their electoral support.

So, a final and noble self-sacrifice. But, brave or foolhardy? Our politicians are too seldom one and too often the other!

*Voters should be allowed to express their first and second preferences as between Remain, TM’s Deal and No Deal. The least popular first preference should then be eliminated and such voters’ second preferences allocated to the other two in order to determine the final outcome.

Regards
Lloyd Zokay

Reply
BlondeHelen

Thanks Lloyd. The thing about preference votes is that they often end up with an outcome that pleases nobody, but I appreciate your mathematical way of looking at it! Labour are certainly the key to getting this thing done.

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