Tagged: #boehner

The Day Today 17 Oct

* Senate (81-18) & House (198-87) vote to lift debt limit until Feb 7th and fund Govt to Jan 15  {fifw NSN MUSRY96S972M <go>} http://reut.rs/H5sD9n * Given risk rally ahead of the deal, it’s been a case of “buy rumour/sell fact” this morning * S&P: shutdown cost $24bn and shaved at least 0.6% off Q4 growth {fifw NSN MUSSR76S972B <go>} * Fed Beige Book saw 4 out of 12 districts report slower growth amid ‘uncertainty’ over the shutdown (survey took place through Oct 7th) * China’s rating agency Dagong downgrades US credit rating from ‘A’ to ‘A-‘ {fifw NSN MUSYJ46JTSEV <go>}

* Data that we have missed during shutdown: Oct Employment report Aug Trade balance Sep PPI and CPI Sep retail sales Aug TICS Sep housing starts Sep Industrial Prod’n

* BlackRock With Pimco See Fed Delaying Stimulus Taper as Treasuries Rally

* London Luring Foreign Companies With Low Taxes as Banks Retrench – comparing UK corporation tax rate of 23% with Swiss at 18%  {fifw NSN MUS5ZV6VDKHS <go>} * BOE’s Dale Sees Chance of a Rate Increase in 2014: Guardian {fifw NSN MUSW2T6KLVRP <go>} [though what he actually says is that the “big message is that monetary policy is going to remain loose for a considerable period of time”]

* Dimon Said to Have Given Up Role at Bank Unit at Request of U.S. Regulator to ‘improve corporate governance’ {fifw NSN MUSTZ96S972D <go>}

* Singapore non-oil domestic exports (sa) better than exp, +5.7% YoY vs 2.6%exp and -6.0% prior

The Day Today 15 Oct

* US Senate nearing a deal to fund Govt through to Jan 15th and debt ceiling through to Feb 7th  http://nyti.ms/1ggRVlf   http://wapo.st/1bT9Z2L * Over to Boehner, who’s spokesman (!) cautiously said “If the Senate comes to an agreement, we will review it with our members”  http://politi.co/16JrD4R

* CPU/SPD talks continue, to decide by Sunday whether to enter into formal coalition talks

* Rosengren Says Yellen as Fed Leader Would Be Clear Communicator: “she is very precise in her language”  {fifw NSN MUNUR36KLVRW <go>} * S&P says Yellen at Fed would be “near-to-intermediate term positive” and she’s not as “dovish as people think” http://bit.ly/1aHEvHR

* New BoE Deputy Governor for financial stability Jon Cunliffe says UK not in a housing bubble, and recent data suggest there are “upside risks” to BOE August forecasts  {fifw NSN MUO6CF6S972I <go>}

* RBA Minutes: impact of rate cut evident and had “further to run”, retains option for cuts {fifw NSN MUOUJZ6KLVRK <go>} * RBNZ Dep Governor Spencer: mortgage-lending restrictions could ease upward pressure on the NZD by reducing the size of rate increases {NSN MUOHKX6JTSER <go>} It’s all about macroprudential regulation for the economies that emerged from the crisis in better shape but still with low interest rates…

* FT – Currencies funds feel strain of US deadlock. “It’s been one of the quietest quarters on record. Volatility has been very low, it’s been the tightest range in euro-dollar in its history,” says Kevin Rodgers, global head of foreign exchange at Deutsche Bank. http://goo.gl/Ju4G4Z

The Day Today 14 Oct

* Now it’s all about what the Democrats want: They’re refusing ‘to sign on to any deal that reopens the Govt but locks in budget cuts for next year’- i.e. remove the sequester  http://nyti.ms/16ZaIO4 * Politico reports that Democrats want $986bn-$1.058trn of funding, compared to the $967bn that the automatic sequestration allows http://politi.co/GNplaW

* CBO says Govt would start missing payments between Oct 22 and 31st if debt ceiling not raised before Oct 17th http://bloom.bg/GWEfMG * What would a US default look like? RTRS: http://reut.rs/GNp9bK * G20 urges US to act quickly to avoid default http://reut.rs/19LP28d

* China’s trade surplus much lower than exp due to weaker exports: Exports -0.3% vs +5.5% exp and +7.2% prior Imports +7.4% vs +7.0% exp and +7.0% prior Trade surplus $15.2bn vs $26.3bn exp and $28.5bn prior {fifw NSN MUNEFF0YHQ0X <go>} * China CPI surging at 3.1% vs 2.8% exp and 2.6% prior – driven by food prices

* Canada’s TD considers bid for RBS’s US unit Citizens {fifw NSN MULVWD6S972C <GO>}

* Ireland on course to exit bailout December 15th http://on.ft.com/GWEEP5

* Norway effectively tightens mortgage lending by telling its banks to base their capital ratios on bigger loss assumptions in the event of a default. The “loss-given-default” floor on mortgage assets will rise from 10% to 20% {fifw NSN MUN95H07SXKX <go>}

Back to reality

It’s been a long week. Will they, won’t they – it’s the big storyline in this week’s soap opera live from Capitol Hill. Frankly the thought of a Boehner/Obama clinch is more offputting than a 5% fall in the S&P, but I’m saved from the latter anyway by the fact the the S&P had its second best day of the year so far. Once again we are more haunted by the ghost of Lehman past than we need to be. The real world is still recovering and with the Yellen Fed, policy looks set to remain accommodative. So the focus needs to be on the real world rather than the soap opera, and we get more news on that today as earnings season kicks off… JP Morgan and Wells Fargo report before the open.

The Day Today 7 Oct

* FT: Abe warns of delay in key labour reforms http://on.ft.com/1fU82oF

* FT writes the Fed is worried Oct jobs data will never be collected if shutdown persists – Oct 14 is the survey week – which means waiting until Jan for any usefully comparable data  http://on.ft.com/1bBXclk * WSJ: Boehner Ties Deal to Talks on Debt  http://on.wsj.com/GDmrWd  {NSN MU9KHM07SXKX <go>} * An American Default Seen Unprecedented Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman Demise {NSN MUA5KW6K50XW <go>} [now where have we seen this before…?] * Lacker Says U.S. Shutdown Effects on Economy to Be Transitory {NSN MU5Q0N6S972F<GO>} so should not delay taper

* Italian Senate panel decides to expel Berlusconi – end of month is the vote from the full Senate {NSN MU6PHH3H0JKZ <go>}

* New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate Still Too High, English Says {NSN MUA3046K50XS <go>}

* Even Kathimerini now says it’s time for the Troika to “go home” as the model is “counterproductive”  http://bit.ly/1fU8lQi

* Cyprus pulls out of Eurovision! http://on.wsj.com/19uJR6x