Focus on the Big Questions

As you might expect for a student of politics, philosophy and economics (also known as “General Studies”), the current state of play is about as exciting as it could possibly be. Look how Trump is crunching the historic separation of powers! See how the UK demands a better representation of its trading powers! Hear the…

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The Power of the Pen

It’s a busy week, with Fed, BOE and BOJ meetings, not to mention latest payroll and ISM data from the US. Throw in the PMIs and flash Eurozone CPI data, and usually we would be getting overexcited about how to pick through the minutiae of all of these signals. Central bank rate paths would be…

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Shouting is OK

So, now we have the battle lines drawn for this year. Global reflation on the one hand; protectionism on the other. One boosts growth; the other reduces it. And within each growth scenario, each country could have wildly different outcomes for their economy. Meanwhile the policies that will lead to more emphasis on one or…

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Aaaaaand relax

Much as he might hate this, it’s not all about Trump. The fact is that the global economy was already on a reflating trend before his election. Curves were steepening from early October and after a well-earned Christmas break, have been doing the same since the new year began.The difference this time is that the…

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The Court of Public Opinion

The reaction and even anticipation for today’s Supreme Court ruling on the UK government’s triggering of Article 50 is a salutary tale for the markets. Yay, they thought, this is an actual event with a specific time and a binary outcome! Kinda like a central bank meeting! We like those. But then, politics rather overtook…

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