Hard, Clean, whatever you want to call it, we’re out #Brexit

Surely now, surely, the conversation will move on from “Hard” vs “Soft”. From Supreme Court rulings. From Remainer Hope vs Leaver Disaster. It’s going to happen. The UK is leaving the EU. It therefore has to leave the institutions of the EU, all of them. The single market, the customs union, the ECJ. It then…

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GBP teeters on the edge

Towards the end of last year, Blondemoney attended a conference. The attendees were asked, what’s the big risk you’re worried about next year? 47% said Europe/EU elections; 26% said new US administration. Almost at the very bottom of the list, with just 2% of votes, was Brexit. At the time, that seemed complacent. Now, with Article…

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Thus far in 2017, the main questions occupying people’s minds seem to be: – How many hikes will Fed do, and will BOJ or ECB be the biggest doves? – How big a fiscal stimulus will Trump and Congress pass? – How much reflation will the world have? – Le Pen won’t really win but…

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Positioning vs Reality

We are poised to enter one of those potentially confusing periods of Positioning vs Reality. The reality is that yes, the world is in an upswing higher, and was already before the alleged Trump Trades were put on: Inflation is back, baby, and you better believe it – with China’s Producer Price Index roaring up…

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Patience. Just another virtue markets fail to have.

They say markets don’t like uncertainty, but it’s better characterised as the unknown. Given that each price everywhere is always an ongoing discount of all future information, difficulties arise when that “future information” looks a bit shaky. That’s why they love anything that can be quantified: inflation data, central bank comments about hiking or cutting, commodity…

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