Market Insights

Which Labour MPs will vote Conservative?

Attention has moved from the 40-80 Conservative MPs that Steve Baker claims can kill the government, to the 30-40 Labour MPs that Downing Street hope can let its deal survive. The Times and the FT both run stories today on these so-called Labour rebels.

The headline is misleading. The quotes from Labour MPs show just how uncertain they are over how they will vote. They fear deselection. They hope Corbyn will change. They will vote down the government only to vote with them later. Listen below for our 3 minute wrap with more details:

 

To determine how Labour MPs will shake down, we refer you back to our Labour MP breakdown:

And our table of support for each Brexit outcome:

If you would like more detail on how we calculated these figures, or to run other configurations, please let us know.

The Iron May-dy

That was intense!

In case you missed it, Theresa May just spoke on how she believed Brexit negotiations went with the EU 27…

(If looks could kill…)

What does it mean? What can we expect? Does anything change?

We know it is Friday so do not expect you to read anything now, so BlondeMoney has put together a quick podcast discussion between the team. It is under 5 minutes so you can even drink a glass of red while you listen!

 

As a weekend treat, here is EU’s Donald Tusk enjoying the EU summit…

Why There Will Be ‘No Deal’ – In One Chart!

The BlondeMoney team has spent the summer going through all 650 MPs in the UK Parliament to determine their personal view on Brexit. We ranked them on a scale of -15 for the most “Remain” to +15 for the most “Leave”. We used 24 criteria, including:

  • their personal declared vote;
  • their position in any Brexit campaigning organisation;
  • their votes against their party;
  • and their declared views on Brexit.
  • We scoured the official Parliamentary records on Hansard along with their websites, articles and constituency briefings.

The results show:

  1. even a skilled leader with strong party discipline would have to reach across the divide for the votes required to pass a Deal through Parliament;
  2. the extremes at both ends of the distribution can form a strong enough minority to wreck a final Deal unless it moves in their direction;
  3. the centre of the distribution is still split by both ideology and Party

This is why we believe Parliament will be unable to agree on a Deal, which will ultimately lead to a change of Prime Minister and an inevitable crisis to flush out the necessary pressure to get a deal done.

With our database we can:

  • identify which MP sits where;
  • identify which MPs are most likely to shift position through a comparison with their constituency vote and their majority;
  • model how an MP might vote when it comes to the crunch;
  • model how different factions can block legislation or force amendments;
  • analyse how new leaders of any party might gain a power base.

If any of this would be useful for you or your colleagues, please let us know.

Like it or loathe it, we are about to enter the key period for Brexit risks. There are only 13 days of Parliament sitting until the October EU Summit. Before that, we have the key Party Conference season to get through, which will only serve to heighten these divisions. Business can no longer pretend it is ready for No Deal: contingency plans will be activated.

BlondeMoney is ready to be your Brexit guide. Let us know how we can help.

You Read It Here First…

The summer is almost over, and you, Dear Reader, are ready. You know that the market is primed for self-destruction, wound up into an unbalanced frenzy by Perma QE and the passive money momentum machine. And you know that it takes only one match to light the fuse. You know we will see Black Swan price action on White Swan events. So what's the event going to be?

One word, 6 letters, 2 syllables. Sounds like a Latin past participle for the verb "Brexere", meaning rupture with one's closest trading partner.

But just in case you weren . . .

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In Memoriam

Today I learnt of the passing of the man who taught me all about the markets. And a good few things about life too. Forgive me then for a moment to remember him.

Armed with a Classics degree from Cambridge, a dramatic flourish of melancholy from Northern Ireland, and a handy bit of know-how from amateur boxing, Ed had charisma, knowledge and tenacity in spades. We met just after September 11th 2001, at Merrill Lynch. I had just started as a graduate, plunged into the foreign exchange desk in the midst of recession, and the omnipresent Bin-Laden-induced threat of War. Ed had that memory seared upon him more than most, having been on an introductory trip to the ML NYC office and seeing the second plane crash into the towers.

During the mayhem, he revealed his true calling: teaching. He was the only person who sat down with me to give me a structure to this new crazy day that kicked off at 7am. “Write down the opening levels when you walk in”, he urged, “and a few bullet points from the morning meeting… that will get you through the day without looking like an arse”.

Looking like an arse was the usual state of affairs for a graduate trainee. He did his best to help me, not only to understand what was going on, but also to get used to an environment where failure meant money losses or even job losses. That meant no kid gloves, for which I am eternally grateful. You’ve never really experienced humiliation until the dealing desk turns round and looks at you when you take your first phone trade, and instead of “Mine” or “Yours”, you meekly tell the trader “His?”.

No-one laughed more than Ed, who thumped me on the back and told me not to f**k it up next time.

That was Rule No.1 of course: “Don’t F**k it Up”.
Rule no.2 was inevitably, “Never forget rule no.1”.

Fortunately he didn’t let me sink or swim too far on my own in those early days. He would step in if I found myself out of my depth, but never by patronising me. He would encourage me if I did something well, but never by promoting arrogance. A few months in, he called into the desk for a market round-up. I seriously reeled off some information about non-farm payrolls, technical levels and the Euro hitting parity against the Dollar. Silence. He chuckled. One of his excellent cigarette-and-alcohol-stained chuckles. I braced for the inevitable criticism. He simply said, “F**k me, you almost sound like a real salesperson, praise the f**king Lord we are making something of you my girl!”.

Having passed the test, I could join the various client events and drinking sessions in our nearest pub, the Viaduct. (Why they literally built an investment bank on top of a pub, I’ll never know). I was part of the gang. It didn’t matter that I had a cleavage, Ed just cared that I had a brain. For a team of 40 people with only 4 women in it, this was a blessed relief.

He and his Northern Irish buddy, the Ballymena Academy boys, were the only men who didn’t treat me any differently because I was a woman. They watched out for me. They wanted me to succeed.

In latter years Ed would tell me how proud he was of the part he played in my success. He could never, unfortunately, be happy with his own.

He was the cleverest man I ever worked with. The most charismatic with clients. The smartest about trades. The most humble. The most honest. Someone who I believed in as much as he believed in me. If only he could have believed more in himself.

The demons chase us all. If we are lucky, we can escape them or at least shove them where they haunt us least. For the man we called Little Old Edmundo, it proved an ongoing battle that ultimately ended only in the harshest form of peace.

He was no angel. The greatest teachers rarely are. It takes an understanding of both darkness and light to teach someone how to navigate the path ahead. We argued, we cried, we shouted, we hugged, we laughed. We learned. And what could be a greater gift in life than that?

— RIP My Friend —