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Regular articles that provide the latest accounts on recent political decisions and economic data, as well as identifying potential mid to longer-term risks for your investments.

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The Economic Cost in One Chart

The simultaneous Demand and Supply shock has been set in motion, whatever happens to the course of the virus China might have turned its factories back on, but there is now no-one to buy their products as the Western World goes into lockdown Meanwhile supply chains in the West break down due to the lack…

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The Economist: Finance and economics articles summarised (27th March 2020)

World trade Trade and supply chains are so expansive that ripple effects are felt everywhere. It’s estimated a cup of coffee needs collaboration between 29 firms across 18 countries. When world output fell 0.1% in 2009, trade volumes fell 13%. This year’s shock will be much worse. Trade barriers are also rising. Tourism has collapsed,…

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The Week That Will Be (29 March 2020)

This week we will find out: How far through the stages of grief are we? – Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and then Acceptance We already know: The world economy is in the worst recession of our lifetime. It doesn’t matter about the progress of the virus, the shutdown of the global economy is a deflationary bust…

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It All Comes To Less Than Nought Squared

There is a new risk that needs to be priced: the shutdown of the global economy. The outcomes are therefore worse than our initial prognosis. We previously anticipated a simultaneous sharp drop in both Aggregate Demand and Supply prompting a financial markets shock from the unwind of the short volatility trade. These have been exacerbated by governments…

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Velocity of People can’t be solved by policy

The desire to catch the falling knife remains strong. Our clients’ main question now is when can they return to the market. They now admit there will be a recession, which is progress of sorts, but their focus remains on how to benefit from what they perceive to be an upcoming V-shaped recovery. But a…

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