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Can (Northern) Ireland Derail Brexit? The short version

This is a short note to serve as a reminder of our thoughts on the Irish Border issue. It is the Brexit debate in microcosm, hence why we keep coming back to it. If the UK is not in the single market or the Customs Union, as Theresa May promised would be the case, then…

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Cometh the Hour, Cometh the J

Step forward Jerome Powell! This is your big moment. Today he will begin his Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony (as it used to be known by those of us a little long in the tooth) – and much speculation mounts… oh no wait a minute. Not much speculation mounts at all. He was on Yellen’s Fed, won’t he…

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Why Politics Matters

BlondeMoney had a robust debate with a loyal reader on Friday: why did we keep banging on about politics, he wanted to know. Isn’t it all about whether the Fed hikes 3 or 4 times this year? Isn’t it about the end of global QE and the inevitable recession after one of the longest recoveries?…

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Playing Chequers

It’s still early but the first signs from the UK Brexit Committee “away day” to Chequers, the PM’s country retreat, imply that Theresa May has found ‘some kind of unity’. One leak suggested she had “played a blinder” by persuading Brexiteers to soften their stance; while another leak suggested “divergence has won”, which sounds like…

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Don’t Fight the Fed… Ignore It

Don’t Fight the Fed… no, better to ignore it. The Fed Minutes were upbeat, considered hawkish enough to leave the US 10 year just shy of 3%, but with stocks in the red. Aha, screamed the taper-tantrum-lovers, a sure sign that a more significant unwind is about to infect us. Wasn’t that what caused the…

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