- TM loses again, for two reasons:
- Hardcore Conservative Ideologues
- 28 Brexiteers voted No
- 6 People’s Voters voted No
- Implacable Labour MPs
- Only 2 more Labour MPs switched from No to Aye
- Only 2 Labour MPs switched from No to Abstain
- Hardcore Conservative Ideologues
- Next steps are a charade on the path to No Deal
- Indicative Votes on Monday is same as this week: no way to demonstrate preferences nor for options to be knocked out
- Parliament “taking control” is just a way for individual MPs to put their views on the record: they’re attempting it again for Wednesday
- Meanwhile the clock ticks down
- TM hopes to bring MV4 before then…
- ….but the two reasons she lost won’t go away
- Unless Labour wobblers fear No Deal
- Unless Tories hardliners fear No Brexit
- ….but the two reasons she lost won’t go away
- That leaves us in a stalemate.
- The EU could only offer a long extension if it looked like the House were able to move towards something like a Customs Union. If not, they will say Exit Now or Revoke.
- On that choice, Corbyn abstains; hardliners of each side go for their choice; and the moderates have to decide if they want to deliver Brexit that 420 consituencies voted for
- Before we get to that, the General Election threat is real
- BUT remember under Fixed Term Parliament Act, if a vote of No Confidence takes the government down, there are 14 days to form a new coalition that can command the confidence of the House
- We could get Corbyn as PM in just a few weeks’ time
It is becoming clearer and clearer: there is no path to stop No Deal, as our analysis has always suggested
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