No Deal in Two Weeks Time

  1. TM loses again, for two reasons:
    • Hardcore Conservative Ideologues
      • 28 Brexiteers voted No
      • 6 People’s Voters voted No
    • Implacable Labour MPs
      • Only 2 more Labour MPs switched from No to Aye
      • Only 2 Labour MPs switched from No to Abstain
  2. Next steps are a charade on the path to No Deal
    • Indicative Votes on Monday is same as this week: no way to demonstrate preferences nor for options to be knocked out
    • Parliament “taking control” is just a way for individual MPs to put their views on the record: they’re attempting it again for Wednesday
  3. Meanwhile the clock ticks down
    • Tusk announces EU Council Summit for April 10
    • European Commission announces “No Deal” ‘is now a likely scenario’
  4. TM hopes to bring MV4 before then…
    • ….but the two reasons she lost won’t go away
      • Unless Labour wobblers fear No Deal
      • Unless Tories hardliners fear No Brexit
  5. That leaves us in a stalemate.
    • The EU could only offer a long extension if it looked like the House were able to move towards something like a Customs Union. If not, they will say Exit Now or Revoke.
    • On that choice, Corbyn abstains; hardliners of each side go for their choice; and the moderates have to decide if they want to deliver Brexit that 420 consituencies voted for
  6. Before we get to that, the General Election threat is real
    • BUT remember under Fixed Term Parliament Act, if a vote of No Confidence takes the government down, there are 14 days to form a new coalition that can command the confidence of the House
    • We could get Corbyn as PM in just a few weeks’ time

It is becoming clearer and clearer: there is no path to stop No Deal, as our analysis has always suggested

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