No Deal is the base case as it is the default position in the absence of any action 

  • Action requires consensus which is almost impossible as Parliament is so divided
  • Not just over Brexit, but over attempts to gain power
  • No one wants to own a Bad Brexit
  • There can be no Plan B until the PM makes a decision
  • A crisis is needed to break the deadlock.
  • At that point there are 4 options that prevent No Deal:
  1.  The pragmatists of both parties fall into line and pass May’s Deal (with EU concessions?)
  2. A new government emerges via a 14 day post-No Confidence period or an Election
  3. A government of national unity (GNU) emerges as Labour MPs defy the whip
  4. Article 50 is extended to allow for either a Second Referendum or a General Election
  • 29thMarch 2019 is not the end of the matter
  • A new era of political instability is upon us as each faction agitates for its own ends

·         Expect maximum mayhem by mid-late February and again in April

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