The Day Today 8th March 2019

  • ECB sources tell Bloomberg they doubt the 2019 outlook even after even after yesterday’s surprise stimulus
  • BOE’s Tenreyro in The Herald: “disorderly Brexit…opens the possibility of a recession”
  • Brexit negotiations continue:
  • Labour will not support a referendum on Brexit in all circumstances Independent
  • Fed’s Brainard argues for ‘softer’ rate path
  • China Trade number missed, steepest decline in exports in three years, CNY 34.46bn vs expected CNY 252.3bn
  • Japan Finance Minister sees global growth downside risks continuing (trade disputes)
  • Argentine election uncertainty (October) hits the peso
  • Venezuela in the dark after power failure

It’s dovish everywhere. China stocks hit (biggest intraday hit since October) overnight apparently from ECB shock waves, but the truth is that the switch to short gamma is having an impact. When volatility is low, any small shift can trigger big moves

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