We have gone through the voting record, speeches and website of each and every MP. If the votes proceed as scheduled, we believe there is a 50% chance of stalemate by Thursday evening. No Deal remains our default case because:
- There is still no majority in favour of anything else
- The PM risks her Party if she offers an extension
- The EU27 will only accept an extension by including conditions that are not palatable to a majority of MPs
- Too many MPs benefit from Theresa May owning a Bad Brexit . . .