No Deal can’t be stopped

  1. Only the Prime Minister can extend or revoke Article 50
  2. Only the PM can decide the date of the next General Election
  3. Only the Government can dictate the Business of the House

1+2+3 = Boris can ensure the UK leaves the EU on 31st October, Deal or No Deal. 

Public opinion could affect his decision. But:

  • 410 of 650 constituencies voted to leave
  • The extension has cost both the Conservatives and Labour almost half their support, as the EU Elections demonstrated

Political pressure could affect his decision. But:

  • Anti-No-Dealers have no alternative leader nor Brexit plan
  • Even 55% of Labour MPs don’t back Corbyn (see our analysis)

No Deal can’t be stopped. Our analysts picked this up last Septemberagain after the recent Benn/Burt Amendment, and in our note from 2nd July, “Diary To An Election“:

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