The Day Today 25th March 2020

  • US stimulus package “we have a deal” said Eric Ueland, WH legislative affairs director, details are so far sketchy
  • Kudlow said total package of $6trn, a quarter of US GDP, with $4trn Fed lending and $2trn from Congress
  • Trump said lockdown may last beyond Easter Fox reported, on a private conference call between the White House and select Wall Street investors
  • Australia ramps up lockdown measures
  • India does “total lockdown” as Mr Modi said yesterday
  • New Zealand undertakes its first QE, NZ$250mn
  • New Zealand coronavirus cases rise almost 50% as full lockdown goes into place later
  • UK data released by the ONS will be published at 7am now and NOT 9:30am, UK inflation is therefore out at 7am this morning

US equities soared, the Dow had it’s biggest one day gain yesterday, 11.4%, since 1933. Asian stocks also surged, Nikkei >8%.

The Week That Will Be
This week we will find out:

  1. How is global economic growth? – PMIs (Tues), US Jobless Claims (Thurs), UK Retail Sales (Thurs)
  2. How much monetary & fiscal stimulus will come in 2020? – BOE (Thurs)
  3. Will Trump win re-election? – Fiscal package promised Monday

We already know:

  1. The world economy is in recession.
    • It doesn’t matter about the progress of the virus, the sudden stop of the global economy makes a recession inevitable.
      • The only question is whether it . . .

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On this day in 1996 The European Union’s Veterinary Committee banned the export of British beef as a result of mad cow disease

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