The Day Today 13th January 2022

  • Fed Brainard to tell Senate Banking Committee “We are seeing the strongest rebound in growth and decline in unemployment of any recovery in the past five decades. But inflation is too high” so meeting their target is “our most important task”.
  • Fed Harker tells the FT “I currently have three increases in for this year, and I’d be very open to starting in March… I’d be open to more if that’s required” or fewer if “inflation does in fact start to come down”.
  • Average Manhattan rent the highest ever for a December.
  • Canada drops vaccine requirement for Canadian truckers.
  • TSMC reports record profit and revenues.
  • Indonesia allows 37 coal vessels to depart.
  • Cruise operator Genting Hong Kong shares fall by half as it resumes after four day trading break and reports it might not be able to meet its financial obligations.
  • House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee report says only Parliament, not the BOE, can introduce a state-backed digital currency as it would have “far-reaching consequences”.
  • UK equity fund outflows the most since 2018.
  • UK hospitality businesses report 40% drop in sales over festive season.
  • CBI survey reports staff absences at 10-15%, double the usual.
  • More deaths than births likely in the UK by 2025, according to ONS.
  • Manufacturing NI survey shows less than a quarter of its members are struggling with the Protocol, down from 40% six months ago.
  • Lithuania Foreign Minister warns “Europe has to stand up” to China.

US stock markets made small gains with gamma/vanna keeping the market choppy. Options positioning suggests more swings to the downside are coming. Asian stocks were mostly lower with both the Nikkei and Shanghai down almost 1%.

The Week That Will Be
The Fed and Inflation; it’s a political thing: Actual Inflation; China producer prices Wednesday, BUT despite all the central bank hawkishness, inflation is currently not a useful marker: Earnings; they begin Friday.

On this day in 1968, Johnny Cash recorded the album “Johnny Cash at Folsom Prison” in front of 2,000 inmates. Carl Perkins opened proceedings, followed by the Statler Brothers, before the Man in Black took to the stage.

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