The Day Today 16th May 2022

  • Sweden and Finland will apply to join NATO.
  • Iran says it can double oil exports if needed by the market.
  • Nuclear talks between Iran and the West may resume after a visit by a EU envoy to Tehran.
  • Aramco earnings beat expectations.
  • Goldman allows senior staff to take as much time off as they want to “rest and recharge”, gives junior bankers two extra vacation days.
  • Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, votes against the SPD, boosts share for CDU (35.7% of vote, gain of 2.7% on 2017 result) and Greens who almost tripled their share of the vote to 18.1 from 6.4% according to public broadcaster WDR.
  • China data disappointing, Retail Sales fell 11.1% yoy vs f/c 6.1%, IP down 2.9% yoy vs f/c up 0.4%.
  • Shanghai targets 1st June for return to normal life.
  • Boris Johnson is set to scrap parts of the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol that hamper state aid in order to help with the cost of living crisis.

Global equities sank for a sixth consecutive week, the FTSE All-World index losing streak is on a par with its performance in mid 2008. It fell 2.2% last week, the S&P 500 was down 2.4% on the week and the Nasdaq lost 2.8%. A rebound in the S&P 500 on Friday meant it narrowly missed entering a formal bear market (down 20% from recent highs).

The Week That Will Be
The Fed, Jerome Powell has at last been re-nominated for his second term, he wants you to know he’ll do whatever it takes to bear down on inflation; The BOE, the Treasury Select Committee will likely give the BOE reps a roasting Monday as they testify on their latest Monetary Policy Report. Only one of the four external MPC members, Catherine Mann, has markets/industry experience, careless given imminent QT; Retail Sales, China data Monday, US Tuesday and UK Friday; Volatility, we have not seen the worst of it yet.

The Economist: Finance and economics articles summarised

On this day in1974 Josip Broz Tito was elected president for life of Yugoslavia.

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