1. The Fed
The Fed will hike 75bp on Wednesday, taking interest rates towards their estimate of the long run neutral rate of 2.5%. But we know they want rates to go into restrictive territory, and we know they want to get there sooner rather than later, while the economy can still take it.
But the economy is already running out of steam - and Q2 GDP data on Thursday could follow Q1 with another negative reading, leaving the US already in recession. The Fed will have this data at their meeting, meaning Powell . . .
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