The Day Today 1st August 2022

  • Fed Kashkari: “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change my analysis… We definitely want to see some slowing.. We’re going to do everything we can to avoid a recession, but we are committed to bringing inflation down, and we are going to do what we need to do”.
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI disappoints at 50.4 against 51.5 expected and 51.7 prior.
  • Biden tests positive for Covid again and will isolate despite no new symptoms.
  • Heineken beats estimates as consumers bought more beer despite higher prices.
  • S Korea exports to the US rise to the largest monthly amount on record, while shipments to China fell.
  • Australia home prices slide, with the drop in Sydney the biggest monthly decrease in almost 40 years.
  • Deutsche Bank internal investigation finds it broke its own rules over “cum ex” dividend tax fraud.
  • HSBC beats earnings estimates and pledges to restore dividend to pre-pandemic levels “as soon as possible”.
  • Rishi Sunak says he will cut basic income tax rate to 16% by end of next Parliament if he becomes PM.
  • Longest period of net outflows from EM funds since IIF records began in 2005.
  • Oxford and Cambridge running out of lab space to rent.
  • NZ fully reopens borders for first time since March 2020.

The Week That Will Be
The UK, poor old BOE started hiking early but did a terrible sales job of it, they’ll be forced to hike 50bp on Thursday; The Fed, turbocharged hawks still, but they’ll want a lower NFP Friday in the upside down world; Australia, 50bp hike coming on Tuesday; Earnings, Tuesday sees Starbucks, Wednesday Moeller-Maersk, Thursday Glencore.

On this day in 1965 Frank Herbert’s novel Dune was published for the first time. It was named as the world’s best-selling science fiction novel in 2003.

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