The Day Today 3rd August 2022

  • Fed Bullard: “Modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s… Because of this … [we] may be able to disinflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing…. inflation has come in hotter than what I would have expected… I think we’re going to have to go a little bit higher than what I said before.”
  • Fed Evans: “If you really thought things weren’t improving … 50 (basis points) is a reasonable assessment but 75 could also be okay”.
  • China Caixin Services PMI rises to 55.5 from 54.5.
  • Australia Q2 Retail Sales 1.4% vs 1.2% forecast.
  • Conservative Party members will no longer be able to change their minds during the voting period following advice from the National Cyber Security Centre.
  • UK heading into recession says NIESR.
  • BA extends suspension on LHR short-haul flight sales by a week.
  • Societe Generale reports a lower than expected loss despite EUR 3.3bn hit from exiting Russia.
  • PayPal beats estimates as Elliott Management reveals $2bn stake.
  • Starbucks earnings better than expected despite higher wage bill and 44% drop in comparable China store sales.
  • Uber makes first ever cash flow positive quarter.
  • Robinhood to make almost a quarter of staff redundant.
  • Nick Clegg to partly relocate to London.

The Week That Will Be
The UK, poor old BOE started hiking early but did a terrible sales job of it, they’ll be forced to hike 50bp on Thursday; The Fed, turbocharged hawks still, but they’ll want a lower NFP Friday in the upside down world; Australia, 50bp hike coming on Tuesday; Earnings, Tuesday sees Starbucks, Wednesday Moeller-Maersk, Thursday Glencore.

On this day in 1936, Jesse Owens won the 100m at the Berlin Olympics.

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