The Two Weeks That Will Be (11th February 2024)

1. The UK
It is shaping up to be a hebdomadis horribilis for the Prime Minister. Inflation, far from falling as per his five priorities, is expected to tick higher on Wednesday; a recession could be baked in with soggy Q4 GDP data on Thursday; and, of even more salience to his enemies within and without his party, he faces two defeats at the by-elections on Thursday.

Political leadership is all about winning the argument but to do that you have to set the terms. A few decimal places either side . . .

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