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In order of immediacy of threat:

  1. The Conservative Party No Confidence vote in Theresa May will not come yet. Her opponents on all sides would prefer her to weaken herself further first,

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Deal? Update 2

Who resigned? 

In order of the time of their resignation:

  • They’re all on the more Brexiteer side of our spectrum but they’re certainly not all raving ideologues – for comparison JRM is +15,

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Brexit Secretary Resigns. Again.

It was already bad enough that a centrist junior minister had resigned (see below). But to lose the Brexit secretary over the Brexit deal? After having lost the previous one over the previous Brexit deal?

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Deal? Update 1

Will Cabinet approve the deal? 

  • No-one has resigned yet: suggests nobody wants to be a wrecker
  • But in a meeting where no-one really knows what the person sitting next to them will do,

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At the time of writing, this is what we know: 
– The Withdrawal Agreement, 500 pages long, is ready and Cabinet ministers saw it Tuesday ahead of their meeting 2pm Wednesday
– EU27 Ambassadors meet Wednesday to give their approval
– If Cabinet approve,

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