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Regular articles that provide the latest accounts on recent political decisions and economic data, as well as identifying potential mid to longer-term risks for your investments.

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Dangerous Policy Making

UK Budget Takeaways:

  1. Austerity is “coming to an end”, rather than, as the Prime Minister said, being over
  2. 32m people will benefit from a cut in income tax that comes from raising the personal allowances a year earlier than promised.

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Markets Talk

Topics include:

  • What can we expect from this Budget? Will there be more help for the failing UK high street?
  • Apple and Facebook’s earnings reports are released.

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Spreadsheet Phil’s Budget Smugglers

Yes today is the day that the Chancellor of the Exchequer lays out their spending and tax plans for the years ahead, guiding the economy over the medium term in order to ease the government happily into a stonking majority at the next election.

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What’s Missing?

Several of our red flag indicators are flashing.

1. In May we drew attention to FCA Chief Andrew Bailey’s warnings about ETF Authorised Participants: ‘We know relatively little… about the capacity and willingness of APs to execute their function in stressed conditions where they may be under pressure to tighten their own risk limits.’ And we are now in a situation where:

  • The S&P500 is down 5% in three weeks,

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