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Boris Brexit Island

In four days what has happened on our Brexit Reality TV show?

Boris has either:

  • Lost four votes, lost his majority, lost his brother’s support and lost a No Deal Brexit

Or Parliament has:

  • Delayed Brexit once again,

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No election, yet. What next?

  1. The race is on. Can Boris get an election before the Benn Bill requiring him to ask for a Brexit extension on 19th October becomes law?
  2. With 25 working days required for a General Election campaign,

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The Boris Plan

To understand what is going on in British politics right now, you need to understand Love Island. Or indeed any reality television show of your choice. There is a cast of characters,

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Government defeated, roll on the election

  • A bigger defeat than we anticipated
    • Aside from more abstentions, fewer Labour MPs were prepared to back the Government than our data suggested
    • Conservative rebel numbers in line with expectations
  • The Conservative Party can now go into the next election purged of the No Deal non-believers
  • The Labour Party will be forced to go into an election polling at near-record low levels
    • Unless they decide not 

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