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Regular articles that provide the latest accounts on recent political decisions and economic data, as well as identifying potential mid to longer-term risks for your investments.

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Holiday, Celebrate

1. Tail risks are ebbing away just as we are about to enter a massive holiday period 2. This will be the longest Japanese Golden Week since the Second World War, due to the accession of the New Emperor creating three new holiday days 3. The Chinese Labour Day Bank Holiday on 1st May has…

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The Economist: Finance and economics articles summarised (14 April 2019)

The ECB is changing personnel Quite significantly this year, see graphic below. The ECB was located in Germany and set up along Bundesbank lines to appease German fears over inflation and money supply. Its chief economist was Otmar Issing, erstwhile Bundesbank rate setter. Now Philip Lane, dovish Irishman, is set to be the chief economist…

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Extend and Pretend

A fudged two-prong extension is expected to come from the EU27 tonight: ‘only as long as is necessary and, in any event, no longer than XX.XX.XXXX and ending earlier if the withdrawal agreement is ratified’ But the long extension will contain conditions: ‘The United Kingdom shall facilitate the achievement of the Union . . ….

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The Economist: Finance and economics articles summarised (7th April 2019)

European banks are struggling Aside from a few notable examples including Lloyds and ING. The return on equity of 190 European Union banks was 6.5% in 2018, see chart below. This is not enough, the minimum for shareholders is 9-11% and compared to American banks it is pitiful, where the biggest manage well over 10%…

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Over to EU, Part II

The Cooper Bill passed by just one vote, 313 v 312 14 Conservatives voted for it v 9 Labour against This Bill is different from all the other amendments we have seen. It legally forces the PM to take action: The day after the Bill receives Royal Assent (and it must get through the House…

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