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The Economist: Finance and economics articles summarised (17 March 2019)

China’s current account surplus is disappearing It was 10% of GDP in 2007, last year it was 0.4%. They are buying more from abroad, just as exports stall, see chart below. This will help China modernise their financial system: the “global savings glut” that Bernanke talked about is embodied here. At the most basic level,…

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How You Left?

++ BlondeMoney predicted five out of six votes to within 25 votes and correctly predicted every MP’s vote in MV2 apart from 26 of the 650. If you’d like more info on our database please let us know ++ After a week of endless votes, we now know: TM is sticking to her plan: Let…

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After the May-hem

Yes the government won a vote that it proposed but then whipped to lose This is because a cross-party amendment passed by four votes that didn’t just rule out a No Deal at the end of the month, but under any circumstances A lack of functioning government has been clear for months so the current…

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Something Has Changed?

++ No Extension and No Deal creep closer ++ Two important documents were released tonight. The Unilateral Declaration by the UK lodges our interpretation of how we can unilaterally suspend the backstop. The Instrument relating to the Withdrawal Agreement clarifies how arbitration works if either party wants to suspend the backstop.

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The Votes

We have gone through the voting record, speeches and website of each and every MP. If the votes proceed as scheduled, we believe there is a 50% chance of stalemate by Thursday evening. No Deal remains our default case because: There is still no majority in favour of anything else The PM risks her Party…

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