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Regular articles that provide the latest accounts on recent political decisions and economic data, as well as identifying potential mid to longer-term risks for your investments.

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Incremental Change

Quite often in financial markets we are prepared for the step change. The day a company announces their results; the day a debt payment is unexpectedly missed; the day a central bank hikes rates.

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Slow, Slow, Quick, Quick, Slow

The reversal lower in EUR/USD is surprisingly calm, given that we now know:

  1. the Germans face months of coalition-making, with talks only expected to start in earnest once the Lower Saxony election takes place on Oct 15th
  2. Yellen will be making a speech today at 5.45pm London time which should reaffirm her

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Mutti mess

Oh, that fatigue with elections just had to come back and bite the market didn’t it? The exit poll for today’s German election result does leave Merkel’s CDU/CSU as the largest party (priced pre-election at an eye-wateringly certain 1/100) and does leave the SPD floundering on the lowest vote share in their history — both not unexpected results.

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