Thoughts – Insights

"The Week That Will Be (" - 26th June 2022)

For all the inevitable shrieks about inflation data this week, we already know what the world’s central banks are going to do (be hawkish) and how the consumer will respond (demand pay rises and reduce spending). So you can forget the inflation data from Germany on Wednesday and the Eurozone on Friday, along with the Fed’s preferred inflation…

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"BoJo A Go Go – By-Elections update"

The Conservatives lost both by-elections: Wakefield to Labour on a 12.7 pct pt swing and Tiverton & Honiton on a 29.9 pct pt swing to the Liberal Democrats. The scale of the defeat is at the poor end of Conservative Party expectations, but the Blue Wall is the bigger shock. Wakefield was an expected loss, with Labour needing only

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"The Week That Will Be (" - 19th June 2022)

1. The Fed Powell got tough with the markets last week but this week he faces his toughest audience – Congress. With the mid-term elections less than six months away, the politicians will be challenging him over how the economy can hope to avoid a hard landing now that interest rates are climbing at the…

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"The Week That Will Be (" - 12th June 2022)

The big G3 central banks are all wrestling with the same dilemma: how do they keep a lid on second-round effects from inflation without incurring a recession? Or at least that is the phoney war currently taking place between the hawks and the doves. The former, knowing monetary policy operates with a lag, fear they’re…

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"BoJo A Go Go – What Next?"

If you remember the 1980s TV show “Bread”, you might be surprised to know that the actor who played the Vicar, Oswald, played a starring role in the aftermath of the No Confidence vote in the Prime Minister on Monday night Giles Watling, the MP for Clacton, was one of those who should have backed the PM according…

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