Thoughts – Insights

With 110 policy measures, Jeremy Hunt spreadsheeted the hell out of this one. Every single one of them were designed to extract the biggest political wins whilst also meeting the constraints of his self-imposed fiscal rules. It delivered a surprise but didn’t frighten the horses. It gave away enough to key constituencies, from business to…

1. UK ++ The UK government reshuffle is ongoing and we will send you a separate analysis as soon as it is complete ++ We are entering a key fortnight for the occupants of both Threadneedle Street and Downing Street. Unemployment comes out Tuesday, Inflation on Wednesday, Retail Sales Friday and then the Autumn Statement…

  1. The Middle East We are now on an inexorable path towards greater conflict. Israel must try to eliminate Hamas and Iran and its proxies must respond. The action thus far has been a kind of shadow war: the Houthis in Yemen demonstrated what they now . . . To read this article, please…

Rishi Sunak’s speech was in many ways the least significant part of the conference, not least because most of the content had already been leaked. More important was how he carried himself as he sought to reinvigorate his own party. While he spoke with genuine heart about the values that made him a conservative, his…

The next two weeks should be choppy for stock markets. Due in part to the expiry of various option structures, gamma on the S&P500 has once again turned negative and only for the third time this year: This will leave the markets far more vulnerable to a shock than they have been for most of…