Thoughts – Insights

"ECB: When Doves Take Over"

It’s no wonder that one of the hawks ‘had to leave the meeting early’ yesterday. They must have been traumatised by the dovishness spewing from the rest of the ECB. The revised forward guidance runs as follows: Interest rates will not be raised until: The Governing Council . . . To read this article, please log in…

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"The Week That Will Be"

1. BOE MPC members are now falling over themselves to make speeches. We had the hawkish about-turns from Saunders and Ramsden last week; this week we can expect the same from Haskel (Monday) and Broadbent (Thursday). The title of the speech from the former is “Will the pandemic ‘scar’ the economy?” – I think we…

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"Hoping for the best, Preparing for the worst"

Never before have we introduced a vaccine so quickly into the life cycle of a virus. Given the constant mutations that take place until a virus stabilises, the vaccines will have to be updated. They will always be behind the curve, chasing the virus as it adapts to survive. As this article from Nature suggests, it means…

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"The Week That Will Be (" - 4th July 2021)

1. The Fed Minutes from the Fed meeting where they blinked on inflation are released Wednesday. This should offer further insight into whether those hawkish 2023 dots came from non-voters under the cover of Quarles’ reflationary speech at the end of May. It certainly looks so far that the core high command are only dipping a toe into the…

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"The Week That Will Be"

1. The Fed Humanity’s natural inclination is to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. The Fed have done just that with their last meeting. Unfortunately it’s a confusing message to deliver. Having spent a year embedding an obsession with shortfalls in employment, they have now dashed to the other side of their…

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