Thoughts – Insights

"The Omicron Certainty"

The path ahead is quite clear: A vaccine-evading variant will emerge This dawning realisation will impair the velocity of people Policymaker division will stymie any fiscal response The inflation obsession will see tighter monetary policy By the time the authorities understand the hit to economic growth, their intervention will be too late Risky assets will…

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"The Week That Will Be (" - 28th November 2021)

1. Omicron We won’t know the truth about Omicron’s vaccine evasion or deadliness for some time, but that doesn’t matter. The mathematics, the politics and human behaviour mean its negative impact on economic growth is a certainty. As we explained in our note from 8th July, “Hoping for the best, Preparing for the worst”: ‘the…

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"The Week That Will Be"

1. The Fed Clarida flexed his hawkish feathers with Friday’s comment that “it may well be appropriate at [the December] meeting to have a discussion about increasing the pace at which we’re reducing our balance sheet”. But, if we can channel Mandy Rice-Davies for a moment, he would say that, wouldn’t he? The clock is ticking on…

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"The Week That Will Be (" - 14th November 2021)

1. The Consumer Expect a strong release for retail sales from the US on Tuesday and the UK on Friday as consumers likely pull forward their holiday season purchases on scare stories of supply bottlenecks. As with most data released since the pandemic took hold, one month’s figures cannot be taken as part of a regular undulating boom/bust cycle….

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"The Week That Will Be"

1. Central Bank Speak After last week’s stramash of central bank events, this week the members can step forward to clear up the mess. Monday should bring the most interesting debate, with Brookings hosting an event on the new Fed and ECB monetary policy frameworks, featuring a panel of the Fed’s Clarida, the ECB’s Lane, and, to provide some…

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