Thoughts – Insights

"The German Power Vacuum"

In 26 days, Angela Merkel will no longer be relevant. Her sixteen years at the helm of Europe’s largest economy will be over. The departure of such a colossus, whether loved or hated, always raises the spectre of turbulence. A well-respected, experienced and fully endorsed successor inheriting a buoyant economy can mitigate the risks. That…

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"The Week That Will Be (" - 29th August 2021)

1. US Payrolls The Fed hawks are chomping at the bit for another good jobs report. But Powell made it clear at Jackson Hole that any taper must be dovish in tone, given the employment situation remains dire for many Americans, and that there’s still no firm evidence yet that higher inflation is anything other…

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"The Week That Will Be (" - 22nd August 2021)

1. Down the J Hole [Our COO at one of the last in-person meetings]   The Kansas City Fed finally gave way to an inevitability they should have spotted months ago, and the Jackson Hole symposium will now only be taking place virtually. There could be no better signal that It . . . To read this article,…

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"Infrastructure Instability"

Why did 19 Republicans, including the leadership, back the Democrats’ $1 trillion infrastructure bill? And why were they not the Crucial Eight Senators we flagged up in June? Because the Republicans took the political win while the flagship Democrat vote is still to come: Any gain for Biden is muted as this isn’t his cornerstone infrastructure programme….

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"The Week That Will Be"

1. Fed Minutes On Wednesday we will find out just how far the Clarida hawkish shift represents the FOMC consensus. In his 4th August speech he was at great pains to point out that his forecasts were close to those of his colleagues. He noted that “my individual projections for GDP growth and the unemployment rate turned out to…

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