Thoughts – Insights

"Whatever It Takes is Dead – the Fed edition"

++ The Fed have been spooked by inflation. Six more of them see at least one hike in 2023 than in March. The balance of risks has shifted and liquidity will no longer be as cheap as it was. Whatever it Takes is dead. ++  The new Flexible Average Inflation Targeting framework has cracked less…

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"Brexit “Trade War”"

++ Dominic Cummings’ bombs keep going off but Boris isn’t the man to follow through on his plan. The trading relationship between the UK and the EU won’t be settled for many years ++ The latest spat over sausage rolls didn’t occur by accident. It was designed by Dominic Cummings when he crafted a Brexit…

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"It Still All Comes To Nought" - 2021

++ The tremors from the pandemic persist. They will weigh on economic growth as the velocity of people remains impaired. Monetary and Fiscal stimulus won’t help. It still all comes to nought again in 2021 ++ The latest outbreak in Asia is akin to an aftershock from the initial earthquake wrought last year. In an echo…

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"The Week That Will Be"

1. ECB Lagarde is once again playing for time, hoping that there will be yet another free pass at her press conference on Thursday before she has to resolve the ongoing division between the hawks and the doves. As the BOE’s Vlieghe put it last week, ‘What will ultimately tell to what extent inflation pressures . . . To…

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"The" - 8 Crucial Senators

The Best Senators Money Can Buy A highly controversial election, a 50-50 Senate, and a new party in the White House. Sound familiar? That was the picture this time two decades ago, when a razor-thin election saw George W Bush claim victory under extraordinary circumstances and the Senate was split perfectly down the middle. Despite…

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