Thoughts – Insights

1. US Payrolls The Fed hawks are chomping at the bit for another good jobs report. But Powell made it clear at Jackson Hole that any taper must be dovish in tone, given the employment situation remains dire for many Americans, and that there’s still no firm evidence yet that higher inflation is anything other…

1. Down the J Hole [Our COO at one of the last in-person meetings]   The Kansas City Fed finally gave way to an inevitability they should have spotted months ago, and the Jackson Hole symposium will now only be taking place virtually. There could be no better signal that It . . . To read this article,…

Why did 19 Republicans, including the leadership, back the Democrats’ $1 trillion infrastructure bill? And why were they not the Crucial Eight Senators we flagged up in June? Because the Republicans took the political win while the flagship Democrat vote is still to come: Any gain for Biden is muted as this isn’t his cornerstone infrastructure programme….

1. Fed Minutes On Wednesday we will find out just how far the Clarida hawkish shift represents the FOMC consensus. In his 4th August speech he was at great pains to point out that his forecasts were close to those of his colleagues. He noted that “my individual projections for GDP growth and the unemployment rate turned out to…

What everyone will be looking at… Inflation data from the US Wednesday but more importantly from China on Monday. The latter is all about producer prices which might just be turning the corner downwards after last month’s marginally lower print. That would ease the pressure on production margins. But of course all eyes will be on the US…