Thoughts – Insights

1. The Consumer Expect a strong release for retail sales from the US on Tuesday and the UK on Friday as consumers likely pull forward their holiday season purchases on scare stories of supply bottlenecks. As with most data released since the pandemic took hold, one month’s figures cannot be taken as part of a regular undulating boom/bust cycle….

1. Central Bank Speak After last week’s stramash of central bank events, this week the members can step forward to clear up the mess. Monday should bring the most interesting debate, with Brookings hosting an event on the new Fed and ECB monetary policy frameworks, featuring a panel of the Fed’s Clarida, the ECB’s Lane, and, to provide some…

1. The RBA (Tuesday) The Spanx have pinged off. The RBA’s Yield Curve Control policy has gone missing in action, with last week’s broad bond market sell-off seeing the April 2024 Australian Government Bond trading at 0.75%, rather than the RBA’s 0.10% target. Their silence on the matter must surely be addressed at their meeting…

1. The UK Budget (Wednesday) When the main weekend leak ahead of the Budget pledges £500m to help new parents with the creation of 75 family hubs you know the Chancellor is simply tinkering around the edges. With debt to GDP now at 100% and the furlough scheme alone