Thoughts – Insights

1. The Fed The first 50bp hike in twenty-two years will be delivered by the Fed on Wednesday. The hawkishness won’t stop there, with Powell set to signal jumps of a similar size ahead. They have to frontload their response. If they wait too much longer, the consumer – the bright spot of that awkwardly negative Q1 GDP…

1. The UK Downing Street continually underestimates the breadth and depth of Conservative MP discontent towards their once heroic leader. Those prepared publicly to call for him to go now includes those ranked in the -1 category of our No Confidence ratings, which – if we add up all the MPs into this bucket – cumulatively…

Despite Parliamentary recess and the Easter holiday, the PM has suffered public criticism from his own MPs over the admission of his Partygate fine: Karen Bradley said ‘I do wish to make it clear that if I had been a minister found to have broken the laws that I passed, I would be tendering my resignation now’. Nigel…

The Exit Poll projects it will once again be Macron v Le Pen Both did better than last time round at the expense of all other candidates aside from Melenchon He now takes third position following the complete collapse of previous third-placed Les Republicains, who dropped from 20% to 5% This cements the decline of the traditional…

1. Inflation Prices are going to keep rising. As our friends at MacroPolicy Perspectives put it in their latest CPI preview, “The War Hits Home”. Inflation is the price we must all pay for cutting Russia out of the Western financial system. We can argue whether that is right or wrong, but it is the inexorable path…