Back to reality

It’s been a long week. Will they, won’t they – it’s the big storyline in this week’s soap opera live from Capitol Hill. Frankly the thought of a Boehner/Obama clinch is more offputting than a 5% fall in the S&P, but I’m saved from the latter anyway by the fact the the S&P had its second best day of the year so far. Once again we are more haunted by the ghost of Lehman past than we need to be. The real world is still recovering and with the Yellen Fed, policy looks set to remain accommodative. So the focus needs to be on the real world rather than the soap opera, and we get more news on that today as earnings season kicks off… JP Morgan and Wells Fargo report before the open.

The (Non-Farms) Day Today – Friday Edition – 6 Sept

It’s the big one today, with non-farm payrolls supposed to determine if the Fed taper begins this month. Yet almost all the recent data has been strong and it seems only a disastrous number (<120k?) would stay their hand.

G20

* FT: G20 leaders grapple with risks of reduced US monetary stimulus http://on.ft.com/17D0sEp

* BBC: UK has new Syria chemical evidence – David Cameron http://bbc.in/18FFdD3

* FT: G20 leaders split over Syria  http://on.ft.com/15IjTuS

* Obama Told G-20 Stimulus Will Be Withdrawn Gradually {NSN MSNXSX6JTSFQ<GO>}

* Obama Seen Delaying Fed Nomination Until Syria Issue Resolved {NSN MSOR656JTSEU<GO>}

 

FED

* Fed’s Fisher (non-voter) favours tapering this month if econ strong  {NSN MSNZ4J1A1I4K <go>}

* WSJ: Summers Faces Key ‘No’ Votes if Picked for Fed  http://on.wsj.com/1cNJVmo

* Xi Jinping: China to deepen exchange rate reforms {NSN MSOGLJ6JTSEG <go>} and admits they chose growth slowdown to allow time for structural reform {NSN MSL3AT0D9L35 <go>}

* Latest BIS triennial FX survey: volumes now $5.3trn a day, up one third since 2010. The yen had the biggest jump in trading activity, and the MXN joined the Top 10. London increased its hold as primary trading centre, at 41%  {NSN MSNZJZ6S9733 <go>}

* Dept for Transport announces plans to electrify carriages, in an attempt to stem the rise in people falling asleep on the last train home

The Day Today 5 Sept

* Senate Panel Authorizes Limited Military Strike in Syria {NSN MSM8UG6S972G <go>}

FED

* SF’s Williams Backs Slowing Bond Buying This Year {NSN MSM7H50YHQ0X <go>}

* Kocherlakota Says U.S. Economy Needs More Accommodation {NSN MSMQ7D6KLVR5 <go>}

* WaPo: Here’s what Summers would do at the Fed  http://wapo.st/17OPLEK

* Chinese Companies Investing a Lot Less Overseas http://on.wsj.com/1a6KC9z

JAPAN

* BOJ’s Kuroda Sees Big Risk in Postponing Tax Hike, Kyodo Says {NSN MSM31X6S972E <go>}

* BOJ raises assessment of capital spending

* IMF starting to worry about global economy: downside risks for emerging economies “have become more prominent” http://on.ft.com/18uMEy4

* Spain increasing 2014 growth forecast from 0.4% to 0.5% {NSN MSN0X26JTSE9 <go>}

* Italy PM Letta says women better in government than men http://bit.ly/1a7bDcN

The Day Today 4 Sept

* Russia May Back Syria Strikes If Assad Culpability Is Proven: AP {NSN MSL9N56JTSF8 <go>}

* Obama Gets Boehner’s Support for Military Strike on Syria {NSN MSKOT76JTSFV <go>}

* WaPo: Draft resolution for narrow authorisation of force, max 60days http://wapo.st/1dFzapi

* China HSBC August Services PMI Hits Five-Month High Of 52.8 {NSN MSKWJO3H0JK0<GO>}

* 22 of 32 economists say Japan postponing a VAT increase would have a large negative impact on stock mkt   http://bloom.bg/14ir7LV

* Australia Q2 GDP steady at +0.6% QoQ, 2.6% YoY

* Selling at the lows…? WSJ: Bank of America Exiting China Bank Stake http://on.wsj.com/1aindoU

The Day Today 30 Aug

* House of Commons votes against military action in Syria, Defence Secretary Hammond says decision will put strain on ‘special relationship’ {NSN MSC1443HHEDC <go>}

* NYT: Obama Willing to Pursue Solo Syria Strikes, Aides Say  http://nyti.ms/16VIZdo

* Carney: BOE could add to stimulus if needed {NSN MSBHUN0D9L35 <go>}, says they will act if housing bubble emerges {NSN MSC1FE6TTDS5 <go>} http://dailym.ai/172q25u

* BCC says unemployment will hit 7% nine months before the BoE forecast http://thetim.es/15Difii

* UK Gfk Consumer Confidence highest since Oct 2009, -13 from -16

* ECB’s Nowotny Says Rate Cut Possible Under Current Guidance  {NSN MSBYSK6TTDSN <go>}

* Weidmann: Effectiveness of easy policy wanes over time {NSN MSAUEM3C0QVX <go>}

* Weidmann: ECB May Not Publish Complete Minutes of Meetings {NSN MSAZMI6K50Y0 <go>}

* Japan inflation highest since Nov 2008, core CPI +0.7% YoY vs +0.6 exp

* Finland agrees 2014 Budget plan, spending down EU1bn from 2013, debt to reach 100bn  {NSN MSAZ0K6TTDYD <go>}

* Portugal Constitutional Court rules legislation enabling the Govt to fire public sector staff who can’t be retrained is illegal http://on.ft.com/17pMTxR

* Malaysia Provident Fund KWAP to raise global investments and looks to buy Australian property  {NSN MSBXJP6JIJV8 <go>}