We are well on the way to what we expected from our note last Friday. And we haven’t yet experienced extreme panic, either in financial markets or more widely from the general public. We are therefore extending our expectations for the months ahead:
“We now have Black Swan price action on the evidence of White Swans”.
Thus did we warn in the summer of 2018 why markets suddenly hit pockets of turbulence on what should already be priced in. Rumsfeld’s known unknowns are becoming unknown unknowns, whether it’s Trump attacking Iran, the UK leaving the EU without…
1. Fed cuts rates to 0.0-0.25%. The “Fed Listens” strategic review gives them the opportunity to overhaul their framework – and now they want to run the economy hot.
2. Canada cuts rates below 1%. With growth floundering, the BoC need to catch up with the stimulus enacted by their southern neighbour. A new governor mid-2020…
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Helen Thomas CFA has almost two decades of experience working in financial markets for banks and fund managers. Most recently she was Head of Currency Alpha at SSGA. She was also an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne and Director of the Financial Markets Reform Programme at Policy Exchange. She’s a Board Member of CFA UK and a Freeman of the City of London.
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