4th February 2026
The End of Starmer – The Mandelson Edition
- It had to come. At some stage a decision would be taken that was the prime minister’s alone.
- To govern is to choose, and Keir Starmer chose, perhaps even against his own instincts, Peter Mandelson.
- This is a moment of extreme jeopardy for Starmer. His personal judgement is now in question.
- Winter fuel payments, free clothes, farmers’ tax, business rates, digital ID – none of these hinged on the judgement of Starmer alone.
- But he did choose to appoint Mandelson as Ambassador to the US – and to do so ahead of the completion of security vetting.
- And, as Starmer made clear in Prime Minister’s Questions today, he did so knowing of Mandelson’s ongoing relationship with Epstein.
- But he blames Mandelson for lying about the nature and depth of that relationship.
- The criminal investigation has raised the stakes.
- The police have asked No10 not to release documents that could prejudice their investigation, depriving the PM from immediately being able to prosecute his case.
- With every comment, text and communication potentially ending up in court, anyone implicated cannot spin their way out of it.
- The toxicity of Mandelson has dramatically shifted the balance of power in the Labour Party.
- A whole generation of MPs have realised they not only backed the wrong horse, they backed the snake who could bring them all down.
- Streeting, closely linked to Mandelson, has gone from heir apparent to crestfallen Icarus.
- A whole generation of MPs have realised they not only backed the wrong horse, they backed the snake who could bring them all down.
- Starmer has lost control of his majority.
- He already knew he could not whip his MPs against the Conservatives’ humble address, designed to force all Mandelson-linked communications out into the open. But he amended the motion such that it would not provide “papers prejudicial to UK national security or international relations”.
- He failed to realise that his own MPs have so little trust in him that they wouldn’t even pass this amendment, fearful of what Kemi Badenoch described as it becoming a whitewash exercise.
- Angela Rayner and Meg Hillier came to the rescue by amending the amendment so that Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) would play a role in judging the relevance of sensitive information (although it’s still not exactly clear how this will work in practice).
- Starmer has no way out.
- His own MPs have lost trust in him.
- The backbench Matt Bishop, a new MP with a majority of only 278 votes, gave a powerful speech where he said “How can I vote for an amendment that has the potential to conceal the behaviour of powerful people? What would I say to victims? That transparency matters, except when inconvenient. That accountability applies, except when it’s uncomfortable“.
- Although the amended amendment ultimately passed, this sentiment is rife.
- On our database of MPs, Matt Bishop had a neutral rating towards Keir Starmer. Once the PM loses those MPs in the middle, he has lost the support of his parliamentary party.
- His own MPs have lost trust in him.
- His MPs have also lost trust in his chief of staff.
- McSweeney is in the firing line from those who blame him for advocating for Mandelson, whom he has long been close to.
- But the end of McSweeney ultimately means the end of Starmer.
- McSweeney is in the firing line from those who blame him for advocating for Mandelson, whom he has long been close to.
- And Starmer’s actions do not suggest trust can be restored.
- The amendment passed because of the intervention from Rayner and Hillier.
- His defence that he was misled by Mandelson leaves him looking weak. Leaders can’t be victims.
- The public are watching.
- According to YouGov, 95% say they are aware of the Mandelson story, including 44% who are watching it very or fairly closely.
- And voters can see a PM who blocked a popular locally elected politician (Burnham) whilst installing without proper vetting a political insider renowned for dodgy dealings (Mandelson).
- The voters of Gorton & Denton now have the chance in the 26 February by-election to show just how much they reject all the old parties and rush into the embrace of the insurgent Greens and Reform.
- A popular highly-skilled politician might be able to find a way through. One who has plummeted in the polls cannot.
- Boris Johnson was felled by the shenanigans of Chris Pincher and Owen Patterson, along with the loss of his chief of staff.
- This is an existential moment for the Labour Party.
- They know Starmer is an irrecoverable liability rather than a salvageable asset.
- We said on 4 January that “The Labour Party might have little experience of changing the prime minister but events will force their hand.”
- Those events are now upon us. Starmer cannot escape.
