The End of Starmer – Gorton and Denton Edition

• First Green MP in the North of England
• First Green MP at a by-election
• Sixth biggest Labour majority ever to be overturned in a by-election
• Labour has only come third once before in a by-election for a Labour seat
• 27 pct swing leaves 399 Labour MPs at risk if replicated in a general election
• Worst ever performance for a Conservative candidate in a by-election
• First by-election where neither Labour nor Conservatives are in first or second place (and have run a candidate)

In a word: seismic. Not just for the government but for the British political landscape.

We are headed inexorably to a Reform v Green fight in the eventual general election.

• The Greens will gain momentum on the back of such a resounding victory now that they are a credible electoral force in Westminster
  • Enabling them to leapfrog them over Labour and the Conservatives in the national polls so that they are in second place
• Reform came second in a seat that was at least two thirds of the way down its target list
  • Confirming the strength of their lead in the national polls

It is the worst outcome for Labour, coming third in their 40th safest seat after throwing absolutely everything at the campaign, losing half of their vote on the same turnout. 

• MPs will now have to explain how they have come third in a two horse race

It is the worst outcome for Keir Starmer. For the first time his personal judgement has been put to the test and he has been found wanting.

• He can’t hide behind anyone else’s decision – he chose to block Andy Burnham and to hold a hasty by-election.
• He – and McSweeney – chose to take on Reform, leaving the party exposed on their left flank.
• He visited the constituency and his team briefed it was because Labour was confident of winning. Although this was necessary to get out their vote, it was a strategy that always ran the risk of looking foolish in retrospect.
  • Time and again, Starmer wastes political capital.
• “Voters quite like Andy Burnham and they hate Keir Starmer. That was a needlessly expensive and self-destructive way for the Labour Party to learn that lesson” as The Times’ Chief Political Commentator Patrick Maguire put it.

Starmer has few rolls of the dice left.

• A reshuffle will be one way to formally shift the party to the left and buy a little more time. Chancellor Miliband may be just around the corner.
• Next week’s Spring Forecast provides an opportunity to loosen the purse strings a little further, with student loans likely to see the 16th u-turn, not least given the strength of the youth vote for today’s Green victory.

But the psychological blow for Labour MPs seeing the loss of a heartland safe seat to a more progressive party will be too hard for some to take. 

• Cabinet ministers are not the only means for a leader to resign or be removed. Backbench and junior minister discontent can play its part, along with constituency labour parties, activists, donors and Unions.
• And Cabinet minister inaction comes with a price. A Labour MP messaged Sky News political correspondent Sam Coates to say that “last Monday the cabinet fell in behind the prime minister… if they do it again tomorrow, they’ll be paving the way for Nigel Farage to be Prime Minister”.
• This is not just an existential threat for the Labour Party but, for many of them, for the country too in the face of the rise of Reform.
• Waiting for further confirmation of this in the May elections will be too late. Although leadership challengers might prefer to get their ducks in a row, politics is not a precision game. There are moments where you catch the wave to victory, but wait a second longer and it’s a wipeout.
• Fratricide is longer and more destructive than regicide. The leadership challenge is already underway, even if not formally. 

Strikes on Iran may divert domestic attention but only temporarily. We now know for sure that political instability is rising.