22nd July 2026
The Burnham Supremacy Cast List
- Now we know the cast list for The Burnham Supremacy. This was a reshuffle that tried to optimise for a variety of constraints, mixing experience and factions, and as such has left almost everyone at least a little disappointed
- Just under half of Starmer’s cabinet retained (although a quarter with different briefs); half female; half from the north; one third from the Blair/Brown years.
- But all are now beholden to Andy, their fortunes tied to his.
- This reshuffle is about re-establishing the primacy of the prime minister.
- Despite this, there has been an unusual amount of focus on individual cabinet ministers.
- This is because of the Starmer era.
- His management style, or lack of it, led ministers to freestyle according to their own beliefs.
- His lack of ideology exacerbated the vacuum.
- His diminishing power increased the threat of alternative challengers, raising the profile of factional leaders.
- His inability to recognise the weakness of his position pushed attention firmly onto the cabinet, where any resignation would eventually push him over the edge.
- This is because of the Starmer era.
- Rachel Reeves was the epitome of this unique circumstance.
- Usually a prime minister and chancellor drive a united policy agenda but Starmer’s political and economic delegation often left Reeves at the sharp end.
- Reeves was the one fighting off comparisons to Truss, even though she was Chancellor where Liz was Prime Minister.
- This has created a heightened focus on Burnham’s choice of chancellor, with relief from markets that John Healey is a loyal centrist rather than the left-leaning Ed Miliband or Blue Labour Shabana Mahmood.
- But the reality of The Burnham Supremacy is that it revolves around one man: “Andy, For Us“.
- Jason Bourne is the memorable protagonist of the film; other characters revolve around him.
- So the words of Andy Burnham are those that count.
- We know how this is going to go.
- The early announcements are a deliberate signal of the direction of travel, from capping bus fares to ending rough sleeping and cutting VAT on electricity bills.
- All cost fairly small amounts, rather than the £9bn public sector pay rise that Reeves walked into within weeks of taking over.
- But we will continue to hear over and over “how are you going to pay for that” until the Budget arrives, likely in the second half of October.
- All the announcements so far have been inveigled out of the current byzantine Budget process – from scrapping already announced but not yet funded programmes (Digital ID) to reclassifying grants as loans (Tropical Forests)
- This is the sort of chicanery that goes on around preparing budgets and usually falls under the radar as the big ticket items take all the attention.
- It is smart to fill the OBR budget prep period with something but not if it risks unforced errors.
- One of the main issues with changing the cast list is that it takes time for the new person to embody their new role.
- John Healey is an experienced and capable politician but even he has just said of the energy VAT cut in a social media post that “this means for millions of households… bills will be just a bit lower from October”.
- This is hostage to fortune given the energy price cap won’t be set until the end of August, not to mention being somewhat misleading given the cap does not apply uniformly.
- It would be more accurate, if less appealing, to have said electricity bills might be lower than would otherwise be the case.
- But we know what Andy, for us, is trying to indicate.
- Vibes are good and sales is integral to politics.
- Financial markets will appreciate hearing a consistent message.
- The difficulty for The Burnham Supremacy comes from the villains who deviate from support of the hero.
- Demoted Starmerite Darren Jones has already lobbed in a grenade with his near instantaneous tweet clarifying that the VAT cut had not come from a funded commitment. The cast list has changed but it remains restive. They’re coming for him.
