Starmer Ratings

• We have created a Starmer Rating for every Labour MP based on various criteria including their voting record and public pronouncements.
• The more negative the rating, the less the MP supports Starmer.

• The dotted line marks where Starmer would lose his majority if every MP up to and including that point were to vote against a piece of government legislation (assuming all other Labour MPs vote for it and opposition parties voted against). 
• This enables us to track the median MP who could sink legislation. They sit in the -1 bucket.
• This is becoming ever more relevant as the government pursues policies such as welfare reform that are causing disquiet amongst the party and its supporters.
• Despite the huge majority that Labour won in the election, there is a long left-hand tail on the chart, as MPs become more disgruntled.
• This is because the majority doesn’t translate into a mandate for all the actions that have been taken.
• Boris Johnson had the largest Conservative majority in 32 years but soon found it evaporated in the wake of discontent with him and his party. 
• Starmer’s majority is larger in seat terms but Labour has already lost 10 pct pts in polls since the election – it took Boris two years to do that, six months later he was gone as PM.
• Party management is even harder with more MPs, many of whom (~60%) have never been an MP before.
• With the OBR wagging the tail of Number 11, hard decisions will continue to be required. The relatively silent ambivalent majority in the middle can shift quickly once momentum turns. 
• If you’d like further information on our analysis please contact us.

++ With thanks to our hard working interns Amelia, Arabella, Max and Michiko for their help on this project ++