The Reshuffle

Graphic courtesy of PoliticsHome:

• The demise of Angela Rayner provided a useful catalyst for Keir Starmer to reset his cabinet and prioritise his favourite word, “delivery”.
  • Shabana Mahmood, promoted to Home Secretary, is considered a tough and effective operator who can now, it is hoped, stop the boats.
  • Those with experience from the last time Labour were in government have key briefs:
    • Pat McFadden (first elected 2005) given a beefed up Work and Pensions plus Skills brief in order to deliver on the thorny welfare reforms and address inactivity of the workforce;
    • Yvette Cooper (first elected 1997) shifted sideways to Foreign Secretary;   
    • Douglas Alexander (first elected 1997) promoted to Secretary of State for Scotland;
  • Along with other party stalwarts:
    • Steve Reed (first elected 2012, prior to that head of Lambeth Council) promoted to Housing Secretary
    • Emma Reynolds (first elected 2010, prior to that advisor to Robin Cook and Geoff Hoon) promoted to environment secretary
• Meanwhile junior ministers who are thought to have got stuff done have received promotions:
  • Darren Jones goes from Reeves’ No.2 to the new role of “Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister” along with chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – in other words, the PM’s representative on earth
  • Jonny Reynolds goes from Business and Trade to Chief Whip – in other words, the PM’s enforcer
• This is a team that Starmer and McSweeney expects to get a grip on the key issues of the day.
  • If they can deliver, their fortunes will turn, or at least that’s what they hope. After a year in charge and a precipitous decline in the polls along with the emergence of a new party on the left, this is the last roll of the dice. 
• Except that it is not as bold as such a gamble would require. Almost as important as those who have been promoted are those who remain in situ.
  • Left-leaning totems like Ed Miliband and Lisa Nandy have kept their jobs.
  • Only two Cabinet ministers were sacked, with one (Rayner) resigning. 
• This is a reminder that the Labour Party is a broad but currently unhappy church.
  • The fiscal straitjacket demands changes that many in the party are unwilling to accept.
  • The welfare rebellion would still have happened even with the reshuffled cabinet, give or take some of the mood music. Some MPs are simply not prepared to do what the market requires. 
• The reshuffle will hasten the splintering of the party.
  • All reshuffles make enemies and Starmer can ill afford any more.
  • With Angela Rayner gone, the party now faces a divisive election for her replacement.
• The markets will soon become painfully aware that the current government, despite its nominal majority, has no mandate for the action required.
  • The left, from hard to soft, already wanted wealth taxes rather than spending cuts at the Budget. The bigger the fiscal pressure, the more they will agitate for a left wing solution. 
• It is financial markets, rather than Number 10, that will dictate Starmer’s future.
  • This reshuffle is just window dressing, hastening the inevitable fiscal crisis.