US Election 2024

We have created a Democrat Winnability Ranking for each state, where the higher the number, the more winnable the state for Harris. If we add up all electoral college votes for each state, Wisconsin is the finish line. If either candidate takes this state, along with all the others that should be winnable for them, they will emerge the victor. 

This shows how Harris has the harder path to the White House. She must take all three rust belt states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to win, whereas Trump only needs one, assuming the ranking is correct and he takes Georgia and North Carolina. 

• The current forecast from 538 suggests Trump has the advantage.
  • He is marginally ahead in Pennsylvania and marginally behind in WI and MI.
  • He is further ahead in Georgia and North Carolina.

• But 538 adjusted their model in August 2024 to give more weight to polls and less to their ‘fundamentals’. This was an attempt to make the model fit better with the sudden switch of candidate. As we get closer to the election, the polls hold more weight in their model and their predictions should become more accurate.
• Polls can of course be wrong. But the general momentum across all polls is clear: Trump has been gaining ground and Harris has been petering out.
  • Here’s the polling over time in Wisconsin and Georgia:

• Harris supporters will argue that the polling shows a dead heat; that it all depends on who can get out the vote and that in a game of inches, those putting in the hard yards can still win. 
• This is a sensible strategy: the minimum requirement is to get out your own vote.
  • The Republicans have to do the same, hence why Elon Musk has been offering money for those who help get voters registered. 
• But the messaging around getting out the vote demonstrates which campaign knows it is on the back foot.
  • Harris called a press conference to denounce Trump as a fascist; Tim Walz has taken the gloves off from his Gee-Whiz hometown persona, calling Trump a ‘clown’ and Musk a ‘dipshit’.
  • This might energise the core vote but it fails to prosecute the argument for why Harris should be the pro-active choice rather than the anti-Trump candidate.
  • Meanwhile both Obamas have popped up to chide men who aren’t backing Kamala; Michelle scolding them that ‘if we don’t get this election right, your wife, your daughter, your mother, we as women, will become collateral damage to your rage‘ and Barack making a surprise pitstop in Pennsylvania to admonish a lack of enthusiasm which ‘seems to be more pronounced with the brothers‘.
• These are not the actions of a campaign that is ahead. Criticising your own voters whilst exhorting them to work harder to keep out the other guy is not a motivational message of joy. It’s like spinning tires in the mud.
  • Pollster Frank Luntz has emphasised how Harris’ campaign has stuttered since she moved away from talking about her own abilities and started focusing on Trump. 
  • As this article suggests, Harris should have broken more decisively from Biden at the start so that she could sell her vision of change. In failing to do so, she has constrained herself at the moment where she needs to renew her momentum.
  • People know all about Trump. They either love, hate or (sometimes) tolerate his sexism and racism. They don’t feel they know enough about the female lawyer from California who was largely sidelined by her own side whilst vice-president. 
• And Harris needs not only to be ahead, but to be firmly ahead in all three rust belt states to be confident of victory, given the electoral college votes – shown here alongside our BM Winnability Ranking:

• Adding all of this up makes it likely that Trump will be the victor:
  • He is ahead in the states he needs
  • He has the momentum
  • He has the oxygen of both campaigns
  • He has the advantage in electoral college votes
• Throw in that he is gaining ground in Michigan, which should be the rust belt state furthest from his grasp, and the result might not even be that close.
  • The Democrats have had Michigan-specific issues ever since the war in Gaza began, with over 100,000 voting “uncommitted” rather than for Biden in the Michigan presidential primary as a protest vote against his stance.
  • The same loss of momentum for Harris is also taking place in Michigan:

• And our rankings would suggest that Michigan should roughly be as winnable for Harris as Florida is for Trump.
  • Rather than a dead heat in Florida, Trump is over 6 percentage points ahead.
• The arrival of Harris after the defenestration of Biden made the race competitive. Since then, the last minute substitute is running out of time just as her team keep losing the ball to the opposition who are taking it up to the corner flag. The roaring and booing from the crowd won’t help change the final result. Trump was already 1-0 up and looks set to take the White House trophy in a week’s time. 

By Helen Thomas, Richard Brownlees and Ethan Adams