26th April 2026
The End of Starmer – The Endgame
- “When the herd moves, it moves” – the Boris Johnson quotation has been repeated in the latest New Statesman cover story by editor Tom McTague and again by Diane Abbott on Channel 4 news last week.
- We track this in our Starmer Ratings which use quantitative criteria to track individual MP’s opinion of the PM.
- Before the latest revelations, the majority of the herd was sitting in neutral or ambivalent territory:
- But last week some of those in the 0 bucket publicly shifted away from the Prime Minister. The herd is moving.
- Despite this, Keir Starmer claimed in an interview with The Sunday Times that “the vast majority of the party” want him to get on with the job.
- Not even a majority of his own voters view him favourably, nor does a majority think he will still be prime minister by the end of the year.
- Even if a majority did back the PM, he is losing his working majority in the House of Commons.
- It only takes a rebellion from 83 MPs and the government can no longer be sure its legislation will pass. Our analysis shows the marginal MP sits in the Starmer Rating of zero, meaning the government can ill afford to lose the support of MPs in this zone.
- A plan is emerging from the Andy Burnham contingent: replace Starmer with a caretaker leader in order to run a contest later where the next leader is announced around party conference in the autumn.
- This gives Rayner time to sort out her tax affairs, Streeting time to distance himself from Mandelson, and, of course, Burnham to find – and win – a seat in a by-election.
- But time is not on the side of the plotters.
- In order to ensure Starmer resigns, such that he doesn’t, as per the Labour rulebook, then get an automatic place on a leadership ballot, he must be utterly destroyed.
- A destructive wave risks wiping out not only the leader but also the party.
- In order to ensure Starmer resigns, such that he doesn’t, as per the Labour rulebook, then get an automatic place on a leadership ballot, he must be utterly destroyed.
- Time therefore favours those ready to take over right now – specifically those talked of as the caretaker, such as Ed Miliband or Yvette Cooper.
- Or a backbench stalking horse.
- Or even a relative unknown such as Armed Forces Minister Al Carns.
- Or a backer of the Burnham plan who defects to their own plan.
- The Telegraph reports that Burnham is working on a Blair/Brown style pact with Rayner whereby she would have the pick of cabinet positions and he would “step aside for her… when the time comes“. Given he’s not even an MP yet, you can see why ‘a source close to Rayner’ remarked “It is outrageous to suggest to a woman who pulled herself up by her bootstraps that she should be number two“.
- The pressure keeps building on the PM.
- Emily Thornberry, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, is flexing her legal credentials and leading the charge of uncovering facts around the Mandelson vetting scandal. Fresh from calling top civil servants Olly Robbins and Cat Little, she has squeezed in three more former public officials before parliament is due to end on Wednesday.
- Ian Collard, the Foreign Office chief property and security officer, and the man who had the now infamous verbal discussion with Olly Robbins over “borderline” clearance for Mandelson, will submit answers to written questions by Monday 5pm.
- Ian was previously ambassador to Lebanon and the British Embassy in Kabul, as well as Head of Counter Terrorism, so he will have had plenty of experience in incendiary situations.
- On Tuesday, the committee will question Robbins’ predecessor, Philip Barton, in the morning and the PM’s former Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney in the afternoon.
- Barton stepped down early from his role in November 2024, effective January 2025 – covering the period of Mandelson’s appointment.
- Ian Collard, the Foreign Office chief property and security officer, and the man who had the now infamous verbal discussion with Olly Robbins over “borderline” clearance for Mandelson, will submit answers to written questions by Monday 5pm.
- Emily Thornberry, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, is flexing her legal credentials and leading the charge of uncovering facts around the Mandelson vetting scandal. Fresh from calling top civil servants Olly Robbins and Cat Little, she has squeezed in three more former public officials before parliament is due to end on Wednesday.
- But the Prime Minister still holds the power of the position.
- He can fire any potential plotters.
- He can conduct a cabinet reshuffle.
- He can construct a vote of confidence in himself.
- He can threaten to call a general election.
- We are in the endgame but as the stakes rise, so does the potential for a miscalculation by predator and prey.
- External events exacerbate the risk premium.
- The fallout from the Middle East crisis continues to feed through the supply chain.
- Gilt markets have already been demonstrating increased volatility.
- The political calendar may be fomenting change but only after the 7th May local elections; the economic and financial markets cannot be so chronologically constrained.
- Starmer is in the endgame. Anything, whether by miscalculation, accident or design, can take him out.
