1. GeopoliticsVenezuela, Colombia, Greenland, Iran… take your pick (Trump certainly will). Dust off those international relations textbooks, basis points on inflation are no longer the driving force for the global economy. Instead it is all about weaponisation of resources and how economic systems operate as national security umbrellas. After all, last year’s Liberation Day tariffs …
++ The end of Keir Starmer’s time as Prime Minister is nigh. It only awaits the proverbial last straw. Changing after the May elections will be too late. The Labour Party’s cold war must be resolved sooner rather than later or no remnants of the party will be left to meet the challenge of Farage …
1. The UKParliament might be headed into recess but politics is not. Whether it’s Wes Streeting passionately defending “Labour values” in an interview to the New Statesman, or Angela Rayner reportedly backing rebels who want to prevent the reduction of jury trials, or, indeed, Andy Burnham apparently finding a “nailed on” seat to return as an MP, the runners and riders …
This is what we now know: What can we conclude from this? Politics, not economics, is driving policy. And with the prime minister and Chancellor intertwined into a weak, reactive position as they attempt to shore themselves up, they will continue to make decisions that roil the market rather than placate it. The day of …
Whilst the political and economic authorities of the UK wrangle with the ongoing fallout from the tortuous Budget process, there are a number of key events in the next two weeks that could add fuel to the fire. The most important dates will be two appearances in front of the Treasury Select Committee by the …
The Chancellor is in a mess. Although the Budget cleared the immediate hurdles of pleasing the left of her party whilst not frightening financial markets, the conduct of the process itself is in the spotlight. Who knew what and when is not just a parlour game for lobby journalists. Financial markets rely on information to …
But the damage it is doing to them politically will certainly hasten their departures.
1. The UKThere is still one more forecast round to come from the OBR ahead of the Budget itself on Wednesday 26 November, meaning that there is a further interminable wait until Friday 21 November to assess whether the politically more palatable “smorgasbord” approach without income tax hikes really does mean the Chancellor meets her fiscal rules. If not, then …
Markets must price in more political volatility ahead, including risks of a more left wing government.
