1. EarningsA market scarred by last year’s post-Liberation Day whiplash doesn’t need much to reactivate its “Don’t Get Caught Short” mantra. It doesn’t matter if ceasefires don’t hold, if the logistics of moving 800 stranded ships are too complex to be immediately cleared, or if inflationary pressures from shortages are already in the supply chain …
++ The physical fiscal cascade has begun. We are in a supply shortage that no protagonist can solve and that the belligerents are incentivised to maintain, if not exacerbate. Stimulative monetary and fiscal intervention is not only useless but counterproductive in such a stagflationary shock, even as electorates will demand action. Bond markets and voters …
We can’t be as confident as Chance the Gardener that there will be growth in the spring. If anything, the passage of approximately 150 ships through the Strait of Hormuz during the whole of the last month compared to the pre-war average of 150 per day is making a recession ever more likely. Five years ago, …
From Vision to Execution Two years after delivering her first Mais Lecture, Rachel Reeves returned to Bayes Business School on 17 March 2026 with what was billed as a progress report and reaffirmation of the Labour Party’s plan to combat the absence of economic growth. She continues to assert that an active and strategic state, …
Read more “Securonomics: Continuity, Evolution, and the Test of Crisis”
If this were a normal two weeks, we would consider the slew of central bankers explaining their about-turn from contemplative doves to inflation expectation hawks (ECB Watchers Conference on Wednesday and BOE speakers Thursday); we would reflect on the volatile outcome of the German regional election in Rhineland Palatinate where the AfD doubled their vote …
Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba? One by one, the US is removing China’s pieces off the board. Or at least attempting to do so. It is no easy task, given disruption of China’s supply chains of commodities and influence runs through the worlds of narcoterrorism and unpleasant regimes. But it is one that a man who …
In a word: seismic. Not just for the government but for the British political landscape. We are headed inexorably to a Reform v Green fight in the eventual general election. It is the worst outcome for Labour, coming third in their 40th safest seat after throwing absolutely everything at the campaign, losing half of their …
A week today we should know the result of the pivotal Gorton and Denton by-election. Here is an article in City AM published on 6th February 2026 which explains the backdrop, reproduced with kind permission of the editor: Gorton and Denton by-election will be a snapshot of Britain in chaos The upcoming Gorton and Denton …
1. The UKThe UK Prime Minister wanted the next couple of weeks to be a non-event. A quick by-election in a Labour heartland, catching upstart parties on the hop, followed by a routine update of economic forecasts by the OBR. Nothing to see here, please move along. Instead he faces the first electoral test of …
1. The UK“He did well, the sense is he is no longer in danger“. So said a Conservative MP of Boris Johnson on 25 May 2022 after the full details of the Partygate reports were released. Six weeks later the prime minister had resigned. At that point, the Conservative Party were polling at 32%, ten …
