1. TradeTariff negotiations continue, as they will, ad nauseam, ad infinitum. Trump pops up to push things along, constantly hustling for the deal. Almost the exact opposite of how the EU operates, where a consensus emerges summit by summit, line by line, tortuous text twisted into tortuous text. As soon as the FT had briefed that ‘The …
All the data in the world doesn’t matter when Politics is in the driving seat. For all the inevitable focus on the latest US inflation print due on Tuesday it is still firmly in the rear view mirror. Tariff rates are yet to find their final resting point and companies are yet to determine how much of …
++ Thank you to our intern Tom Berey for his excellent analytical work on this topic ++
1. The World OrderWith the S&P500 and the VIX almost back to where they were before Trump’s “Liberation Day” you would be forgiven for thinking that nothing much had changed in the world in the last three weeks. You might simply conclude the US President tried something and then thought better of it after the …
Never before have we fielded so many questions over a weekend. If you’ve been making money, you’re concerned market volatility could throw a spanner into the works. If you’ve lost money, you have either exited your position or added a hedge. If you’ve done nothing, you are wondering if you should. In short, you want …
Read more “The Two Easter Weeks That Will Be (13th April 2025)”
There are two different events taking place. One is the deliberate jolt of the global trading architecture, the other is the inevitable de-leveraging of an overly complacent financial market. Each feeds into the other. On top lies a media driven by clicks and eyeballs along with a layer of unconscious political bias by those who …
There is now a significant risk of market dislocation as Trump will not swerve from his agenda, the Fed will be loathe to step in, and investors are unprepared for the volatility of volatility.
++ With thanks to our hard working interns Amelia, Arabella, Max and Michiko for their help on this project ++
Normally, Non-Farm Payrolls and US ISM (Tuesday and Friday), Fed Minutes (Wed 9 April) and Inflation from the US and China (Thursday 10 April) would be the key moments to pick out for the two weeks ahead, along with a side order of the Australian interest rate decision and Japan’s bellwether quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday. But we …
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