The Two Weeks That Will Be (3rd November 2025)
With the OBR producing its first “post measures” forecast on Monday 10th November, we are now in the fog of war for Budget negotiations. The Chancellor has been told she has to find X and she will now pick a combination of a, b, c, d and e to add up to that number. Given those …
UK: Anatomy of a Rolling Fiscal Crisis – Part 3
The Two Weeks That Will Be (19th October 2025)
1. The FedThe Fed will cut rates by 25bp on Wednesday 29th October with a number of wannabe-governor dissenters voting for even larger cuts. The doves are in the driving seat, with FOMC members getting themselves into knots trying to describe how tariffs create inflation persistence whilst a weakening jobs market requires less restrictive policy. Fed Kashkari tortuously summarised the …
The Two Weeks That Will Be (5th October 2025)
1. JapanBarring an unlikely outbreak of consensus building between all of Japan’s opposition parties to unite against an alternative candidate, the new leader of the LDP, Sanae Takaichi, will become Japan’s first female Prime Minister in a parliamentary vote (probably on Wednesday 15th October). Her unexpected victory was driven by her strong showing with party members in the first …
Labour Party Conference
The Two Weeks That Will Be (21st September 2025)
1. Central BanksConsider a situation where the most recent government appointee to the central bank quickly becomes its most dovish member, voting for the biggest interest rate cuts in an attempt to drag the committee his way. His dissents take them into the unchartered territory of a three way split, forcing a second vote for …
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UK: Anatomy of a Rolling Fiscal Crisis – Part 2
The Two Weeks That Will Be (7th September 2025)
1. FranceFor a country about to lose its fourth prime minister in nineteen months, French assets are remarkably becalmed. On Monday, PM François Bayrou will face – and lose – a no confidence vote that he called in himself ahead of thorny budget negotiations with a divided parliament. Two days later, on Wednesday, the nation …
The Reshuffle
Graphic courtesy of PoliticsHome:
