The Two Weeks That Will Be (11 May 2025)
All the data in the world doesn’t matter when Politics is in the driving seat. For all the inevitable focus on the latest US inflation print due on Tuesday it is still firmly in the rear view mirror. Tariff rates are yet to find their final resting point and companies are yet to determine how much of …
Starmer Ratings – Part 2
++ Thank you to our intern Tom Berey for his excellent analytical work on this topic ++
The Two Weeks That Will Be (27th April 2025)
1. The World OrderWith the S&P500 and the VIX almost back to where they were before Trump’s “Liberation Day” you would be forgiven for thinking that nothing much had changed in the world in the last three weeks. You might simply conclude the US President tried something and then thought better of it after the …
The Two Easter Weeks That Will Be (13th April 2025)
Never before have we fielded so many questions over a weekend. If you’ve been making money, you’re concerned market volatility could throw a spanner into the works. If you’ve lost money, you have either exited your position or added a hedge. If you’ve done nothing, you are wondering if you should. In short, you want …
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Trade War
There are two different events taking place. One is the deliberate jolt of the global trading architecture, the other is the inevitable de-leveraging of an overly complacent financial market. Each feeds into the other. On top lies a media driven by clicks and eyeballs along with a layer of unconscious political bias by those who …
Starmer Ratings
++ With thanks to our hard working interns Amelia, Arabella, Max and Michiko for their help on this project ++
The Two Weeks That Will Be (30 March 2025)
Normally, Non-Farm Payrolls and US ISM (Tuesday and Friday), Fed Minutes (Wed 9 April) and Inflation from the US and China (Thursday 10 April) would be the key moments to pick out for the two weeks ahead, along with a side order of the Australian interest rate decision and Japan’s bellwether quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday. But we …
Zeitenwende-wende
CDU leader and prospective German Chancellor Merz saw your Zeitenwende Olaf Scholz and he raised you. Three years ago, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Scholz announced a special defence spending programme of EUR 100bn in what he described as the “Zeitenwende”, or literally the “times turn”. Now Merz has doubled down on “the end of an era”. He announced limitless national borrowing …
The Two Weeks That Will Be (2nd March 2025)
1. Everyone“End our huge deficits, reduce our taxes, and let America’s economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending those who can easily afford to pay us for the defense of their freedom“. No surprise these are the words of Donald J Trump. But perhaps a surprise to know they appeared on 2nd September 1987 …
