The tears of a UK Chancellor would not normally trouble Gilt investors, unless they reflected, whether intentionally or not, the physical manifestation of an unstoppable political force meeting an immovable fiscal object. The detail of the government’s welfare reforms were scrambled together to ensure meeting the fiscal rules for the Spring Statement, only to unravel …
++ With thanks to the BM Team for their painstaking modelling work, particularly project leader Tom Berey ++
1. WarOnce again Trump might surprise with the timing of his interventions but not with their magnitude. In 2017 he authorised the first use of the MOAB bomb (in Afghanistan); in 2025 he has repeated the trick with the bunker-busting MOP in Iran. As he headlined in that newspaper advert he took out in 1987, “There’s nothing wrong with America’s Foreign …
The Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will all be unchanged on Tuesday 17 June, Wednesday 18 June and Thursday 19 June respectively. The first two want to wait and see what happens to tariffs whilst the BOE remain split over how soon to deliver the next interest rate cut. The BOE can’t even rely …
1. TradeTariff negotiations continue, as they will, ad nauseam, ad infinitum. Trump pops up to push things along, constantly hustling for the deal. Almost the exact opposite of how the EU operates, where a consensus emerges summit by summit, line by line, tortuous text twisted into tortuous text. As soon as the FT had briefed that ‘The …
All the data in the world doesn’t matter when Politics is in the driving seat. For all the inevitable focus on the latest US inflation print due on Tuesday it is still firmly in the rear view mirror. Tariff rates are yet to find their final resting point and companies are yet to determine how much of …
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