19th June 2026
Makerfield By-Election
- A thumping victory for Andy Burnham, however you slice or dice it:
- He won an outright majority, not just a plurality, at 55%
- Increased vote share on the 2024 General Election, +10 pct pts
- On an *increased* turnout from the 2024 General Election – the first time this has happened in a by-election since 1987
- Doubled the majority in the seat even as Labour Party support has halved at a national level
- He won more than the right wing challengers put together, extinguishing the potential argument that he won due to voter fragmentation
- Labour will now believe that this is proof of concept that a Burnham-led Labour Party can see off the threat of Reform
- Reform’s vote share rose by 3 pct pts where Labour’s rose by 10
- Despite the fact that Makerfield was the 6th highest in terms of Reform’s vote share in the 2024 General Election
- The two other by-elections confirm the Burnham effect.
- Labour’s vote share fell by 19 pct pts in Aberdeen South and 18 pct pts in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, both on much reduced turnout from the general election (as is typical).
- Burnham now has maximum power
- These dizzying statistics will change the posture of Labour MPs towards Burnham – they will go from fearing the loss of their seats at the next election to daring to dream that they might win bigger with Andy at the helm.
- The drumbeat campaign to get him into Number 10 is now under way
- The New Statesman published an exclusive just after polls closed that “Burnham has crossed the threshold of Labour MP nominations required to formally trigger a Labour leadership contest, according to three sources close to the matter, and intends to present the list to Keir Starmer to urge him to step down without a contest. Burnham has no plans to trigger a contest on Friday or over the weekend, but is ready with a list of supporters he can show to Starmer“.
- Almost every Labour MP will now be clamouring to get their names on that letter. The power has shifted.
- Labour MPs will make public declarations to pledge fealty to the new King of the North.
- Left-wing MP Richard Burgon has already done so.
- Labour MPs will make public declarations to pledge fealty to the new King of the North.
- The Burnham Supremacy is underway.
