Starmer Ratings – Part 2
++ Thank you to our intern Tom Berey for his excellent analytical work on this topic ++
The Two Weeks That Will Be (27th April 2025)
1. The World OrderWith the S&P500 and the VIX almost back to where they were before Trump’s “Liberation Day” you would be forgiven for thinking that nothing much had changed in the world in the last three weeks. You might simply conclude the US President tried something and then thought better of it after the …
The Two Easter Weeks That Will Be (13th April 2025)
Never before have we fielded so many questions over a weekend. If you’ve been making money, you’re concerned market volatility could throw a spanner into the works. If you’ve lost money, you have either exited your position or added a hedge. If you’ve done nothing, you are wondering if you should. In short, you want …
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Trade War
There are two different events taking place. One is the deliberate jolt of the global trading architecture, the other is the inevitable de-leveraging of an overly complacent financial market. Each feeds into the other. On top lies a media driven by clicks and eyeballs along with a layer of unconscious political bias by those who …
It All Comes To Aught – Part 2
There is now a significant risk of market dislocation as Trump will not swerve from his agenda, the Fed will be loathe to step in, and investors are unprepared for the volatility of volatility.
Starmer Ratings
++ With thanks to our hard working interns Amelia, Arabella, Max and Michiko for their help on this project ++
The Two Weeks That Will Be (30 March 2025)
Normally, Non-Farm Payrolls and US ISM (Tuesday and Friday), Fed Minutes (Wed 9 April) and Inflation from the US and China (Thursday 10 April) would be the key moments to pick out for the two weeks ahead, along with a side order of the Australian interest rate decision and Japan’s bellwether quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday. But we …
Redundant Reeves
She has already been made redundant by her slavish obedience to the unfortunate OBR; her voters are about to make her redundant for failing to deliver on the mandate they gave her. The markets don’t need to wait for an October budget to deliver their verdict.
The Two Weeks That Will Be (16th March 2025)
1. Trump“the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied”. So tweeted Trump, on the same day that his Vice President flew back from Ottawa after …
It Will All Come To Aught
Five years ago, we argued that when it came to policymakers’ response to the impending pandemic, “it all comes to nought”: that interest rates would be slashed to zero but the impact would be far from enough to offset the financial crisis enveloping the world on top of a health crisis. While right on the …
